The San Francisco Giants (82-44) and New York Mets (61-65) conclude their three-game set Thursday at Citi Field with first pitch scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Giants vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.
San Francisco won the first two games of the series including a 3-2 victory Wednesday thanks to yet another late-inning rally with SS Brandon Crawford‘s 2-RBI double in the 7th inning.
Season series: Giants lead 4-1.
LHP Alex Wood is San Francisco’s projected starter. Wood is 10-4 with a 4.11 ERA (120 1/3 IP, 55 ER), 1.22 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 in 22 starts.
- Last outing: Loss, 4-1, with 5 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 9 K at the Oakland Athletics Friday.
- vs. Mets on the current roster (52 PA): 3.74 FIP with a .220 batting average (BA), .260 wOBA, .389 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 21.2 K% and 88.1 mph exit velocity (EV).
RHP Carlos Carrasco makes his sixth start for the Mets. Carrasco is 0-2 with an 8.82 ERA (16 1/3 IP, 16 ER), 23 H, 4 BB and 18 K.
- Last outing: Loss, 3-2, with 5 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 6 K Friday at the Los Angeles Dodgers.
- vs. Giants on the current roster (29 PA): 1.70 FIP with a .111 BA, .163 wOBA, .248 xSLG, 31.0 K% and 84.4 mph EV.
Giants at Mets odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:38 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Giants -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Mets +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
- Against the spread/ATS: Giants -1.5 (+130) | Mets +1.5 (-165)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)
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Prediction
Giants 6, Mets 2
Money line (ML)
GIMME the GIANTS (-130) for 1 unit because they have an edge in the three most important phases of the game, they’ve been profitable in similar situations and both the pros and the joes are backing San Francisco.
San Francisco’s bullpen has the second-best FIP since the All-Star Game, Wood has a much better FIP than Carrasco on the season and the Giants’ hitters rank sixth in wRC+ while the Mets are 19th.
On top of that, the Giants are 12-5 overall on the road against righty starters as -120 money line or greater favorites and 4-1 in those spots when Wood gets the start.
Since both sides of the market are betting San Francisco according to pregame.com, oddsmakers have moved New York from a slight favorite on the opening line to the current price.
Also, the Mets are just 14-25 overall against lefty starters and the Giants have the second-best road winning percentage in baseball.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS because New York is 10-5 ATS as a home underdog and San Francisco is 11-19 ATS as a road favorite so I don’t see much value in laying it with the Giants -1.5 (+130).
For what it’s worth, three of Wood’s four road victories against righty starters as a -119 money line or greater favorite have been by at least 2 runs, San Francisco has the cover rate in MLB at 77-49 ATS and New York has the third-worst cover rate at 54-72 ATS.
Over/Under (O/U)
Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (-110) for a tiny wager – if at all – because San Francisco’s money line is my favorite bet in this Giants-Mets contest.
However, we have an obvious “line freeze” as roughly 75% of the cash is on the Over according to Pregame.com yet the total hasn’t budged from the opener.
More importantly, both teams have played more to the Under in their location-based splits and the Under has cashed in four straight meetings between the two clubs.
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