The New York Mets (61-64) host the San Francisco Giants (81-44) Wednesday for the second of their three-game set at Citi Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Giants vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.
San Francisco drilled New York 8-0 in the first game of the series as Giants 1B Brandon Belt stood out by going 4-for-5 at the plate with 2 home runs and 3 RBIs.
Season series: Giants lead 3-1.
RHP Johnny Cueto is San Francisco’s projected starter. Cueto is 7-6 with a 3.89 ERA (104 IP, 45 ER), 1.28 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 in 19 starts.
- Last outing: No-decision with 5 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 3 K in San Francisco’s 5-4 win at the Milwaukee Brewers Aug. 4.
- 2021 road splits: 1-3 with a 4.93 ERA (45 2/3 IP, 25 ER), 1.56 WHIP and 2.7 K/BB in nine starts.
- vs. Mets on the current roster: 3.96 FIP with a .298 batting average (BA), .356 wOBA, .484 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 26.6 K% and 89.8 mph exit velocity (EV) in 64 plate appearances (PA).
RHP Taijuan Walker gets the start for the Mets. Walker is 7-8 with a 3.86 ERA (123 2/3 IP, 53 ER), 1.18 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in 24 starts.
- Last outing: Loss, 4-1, 6 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 1 BB and 4 K Thursday at the Los Angeles Dodgers.
- 2021 home splits: 4-2 with a 3.05 ERA (62 IP, 21 ER), 1.08 WHIP and 2.7 K/BB in 11 starts.
- vs. Dodgers on the current roster: 3.20 FIP with a .271 BA, .337 wOBA, .366 xSLG, 24.1 K% and 89.4 mph EV in 58 PA.
Giants at Mets odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:40 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Giants +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Mets -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Giants +1.5 (-205) | Mets -1.5 (+155)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)
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Prediction
Mets 4, Giants 2
Money line (ML)
“LEAN” to the METS (-125) for a half unit because they have been very profitable at home with Walker on the mound, and bettors would’ve lost money if they blindly backed the Giants on the road with Cueto getting the start.
For instance, New York is 8-3 at home when Walker starts with a plus-32.4% return on investment (ROI) and an average money line of -130. While San Francisco is 4-5 on the road with Cueto on the bump with a minus-18.4% ROI and an average money line of -111.
However, I can only “lean” toward the Mets because the Giants are 3-0 as road underdogs when Cueto gets the start, and New York’s lineup has been terrible following the All-Star Game.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS because the Mets -1.5 (+155) isn’t a fat enough payout considering New York is 14-31 ATS as a home favorite and San Francisco is 30-4 ATS as a road underdog.
Over/Under (O/U)
TAKE the UNDER 8.5 (-105) for 1 unit because the Mets are 13-27-3 O/U as a home favorite, and we have a “pros vs. joes” scenario in the betting market.
According to Pregame.com, more than 60% of the cash is on the Under whereas a slight majority of the action is on the Over. Typically, in sports gambling, it’s wise to follow the money especially when it’s flowing in the opposite direction as the public.
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