The San Francisco Giants (83-45) meet the Atlanta Braves (69-58) at Truist Park Saturday for the second game of their three-game series. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Giants vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Atlanta fought back from an early deficit with a 4-run 7th-inning rally punctuated by a 3-run home run from RF Jorge Soler to key its 6-5 victory in the series opener.
Season series: Braves lead 1-0.
RHP Logan Webb is on the hill for the Giants. Webb is 7-3 with a 2.84 ERA (98 1/3 IP, 31 ER), 1.13 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 in 18 starts and one relief appearance.
- Last outing: No-decision with 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 7 K in San Francisco’s 2-1 victory at the Oakland Athletics Sunday.
- Road splits: 2-3 with a 3.88 ERA (51 IP, 22 ER), 1.26 WHIP and 3.3 K/BB rate in 10 starts.
- Second half splits: 3-0 with a 1.94 ERA (46 1/3 IP, 10 ER), 1.01 WHIP and 4.3 K/BB in eight starts.
RHP Huascar Ynoa gets the start for the Braves. Ynoa is 4-3 with a 2.89 ERA (56 IP, 18 ER), 1.00 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 in 10 starts and one relief appearance.
- Last outing: Loss, 5-1, with 6 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 1 BB and 9 K Monday against the New York Yankees.
- Home splits: 3-1 with a 2.15 ERA (29 1/3 IP, 7 ER), 0.78 WHIP and 6.5 K/BB in five starts.
Giants at Braves odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:32 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Giants -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Braves -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Giants -1.5 (+150) | Braves +1.5 (-200)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)
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Prediction
Braves 6, Giants 4
Money line (ML)
The Braves have been one of the hotter teams in baseball recently. Winners of 10 of their last 12 games, their only losses came against an even hotter New York Yankees squad Monday and Tuesday.
The same could be said about the Giants except their past seven wins have been against the Oakland Athletics and New York Mets – both of which are in the midst of slumps.
Atlanta having more impressive wins recently is part of the reason why I “LEAN” to the BRAVES (-115) for a half unit. The other part is Webb has been a little less effective on the road this year while Ynoa has been more effective in Atlanta.
Also, I’m cool with fading a market that’s betting San Francisco at nearly a 75% clip according to Pregame.com, because the public has come around on the Giants being a legit World Series contender and might be sleeping on the Braves’ recent turnaround.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS because the Braves +1.5 (-200) is too expensive even though San Francisco is 11-20 ATS as a road favorite and Atlanta is 7-3 ATS as a home underdog.
I’d entertain parlaying Atlanta’s run line with another similarly priced favorite or run line if it were south of -170 but Braves +1.5 (-200) is a no-go.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the OVER 8.5 (-107) for a half unit because we have a “line freeze” in the betting market. With more than 90% of the cash being wagered on the Under according to Pregame.com the total hasn’t moved much from the 8.5-run opener.
Not only am I willing to fade the market because of the line freeze but also because the Braves are 32-18-3 O/U as home favorites and the Giants are 18-17-1 O/U as road underdogs.
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