San Diego, CA – San Diego State has made a decision about its future, giving the Mountain West written notice this week that it “intends to resign from the conference,” according to latest reports.

University president Adela de la Torre provided a withdrawal letter June 13, per those reports, sparking a debate with the Mountain West and prompting de la Torre to note that the June 13 letter was not an “official letter of resignation.”

The looming question is: will San Diego State pay the Mountain West a $17 million fine to exit the conference before the June 30th deadline, or will they face a $34 million fine to exit after?

Pac-12 Commissioner George Kliavkoff continues to struggle to close the Pac-12 media deal, to the ire of incumbent universities.  The league’s current deal with ESPN and Fox expires on July 1, 2024, and the pressure is on. It has been said that if Kliavkoff were a Marvel Avenger he’d be Captain America, “the man out of time.”

Kliavkoff has repeatedly stated expansion is off the table until the Pac-12 finalizes a revenue deal. This puts San Diego State in a serious pickle: as June 30th looms, the Pac-12 has not yet extended an invite.

San Diego State has requested a “one-month extension” from the Mountain West to delay its deadline “given unforeseen delays involving other collegiate athletic conferences beyond our control.” San Diego State would be required to submit a one-year notice if it wants to officially withdraw next June. If that notice is not submitted by June 30, 2023, San Diego State’s exit fee increases from $17 million to $34 million.

An extension to July 31 gives the university more time to explore its options.

San Diego State was a charter member of the Mountain West when it was officially created in 1999 amid a huge wave of realignment. The Aztec football team has won three Mountain West titles, which is tied for second most among active programs.  Because of its legacy with the Mountain West, and the university’s desire to commence amicably, it would be reasonable for the Mountain West to extend the one-month courtesy.

The more serious question is: what will happen if Kliavkoff is unable to put together a media deal by the end of July?  Stupefying as it sounds, it is not an improbable question. In that case, or if the Mountain West does not grant a courtesy, SDSU might have to consider leaping without a net.

A leap of faith presents the danger that a conference invite won’t come for a multitude of reasons, including the Pac-12 failing to close a media deal; enduring a second major exodus, or even a total Pac-12 collapse.

There is at least one documented “leap-of-faith” epic fail. BYU Athletic Director Tom Holmoe exited the Mountain West during 2010 in pursuit of Power-5 glory. In a quest to help BYU become “The Notre Dame of the West,” he boldly exited the conference, and then placed BYU in college football limbo for over a decade, before finally receiving a BIG-12 invite.

Holmoe spun Cougar football’s independence as a media victory, yet BYU struggled to fill its schedule and repeatedly paired with non-conference programs of all levels while exercising multiple byes. Football coach Bronco Mendenhall eventually left as a result; BYU football had no championship to play for, and the university missed several meaningful bowl appearances. Furthermore, Holmoe criticized the Mountain West on his way out. As a result BYU became “non-grata” amongst Mountain West universities who rejected home-and-home match requests for many years.

That is the very reason San Diego State must look before it leaps, and part as amicably as possible upon its exit-  so that athletic director J.D. Wicker avoids placing SDSU in the same predicament as Holmoe did for BYU for over one decade.

San Diego State’s letter to the Mountain West represents real action, and despite the Pac-12’s struggles in finalizing a media deal, realignment appears right around the corner for the 2024-25 season.