The San Diego Padres start a National League Division Series against the NL West rival Los Angeles Dodgers Tuesday. The first pitch is scheduled for 9:38 p.m. ET at an MLB postseason neutral/bubble location of Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas. Below, we analyze the Padres-Dodgers MLB betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.
Season series: Dodgers won 6-4
Padres at Dodgers: Projected starting pitchers
RHP Mike Clevinger vs. RHP Walker Buehler
Clevinger: 3-2 with a 3.02 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 8.6 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 in 41 2/3 IP over 8 starts with the Padres (4) and Cleveland Indians (4).
- Last start (Sept. 23): No-decision with 1 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 2 K and 0 BB in a 5-2 Padres loss against the Los Angeles Angels.
- Pulled after one inning due to biceps tightness. Game 1 of the NLDS is his first start since being sidelined with an injury.
- Clevinger has never faced the Dodgers.
Buehler: 1-0 with a 3.44 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 10.3 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 in 36 2/3 IP over 8 starts.
- Career vs. Padres: 4-0 with a 1.36 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, 45 K and 8 BB over 33 IP spanning 5 starts.
- The current Padres lineup vs. Buehler: .173/.218/.365 with 3 HR (52 batters faced).
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Padres at Dodgers: Key injuries
(Get the latest injury news here.)
Padres
- C Jason Castro (jaw) questionable
- RP Kirby Yates (elbow) out
- SP Dinelson Lamet (biceps) out
Padres at Dodgers: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:10 p.m. ET.
Prediction
Padres 4, Dodgers 2
Money line (ML)
The Dodgers (-162) are going to be the most expensive team in the postseason from here on out. They’re the odds-on favorites to win the World Series. BetMGM will probably price me out of most LA action and that’s the case here.
It has been a solid season for Buehler, but he is giving up more home runs per nine than his previous two seasons (1.7 HR/9). Also, Buehler’s only outing this season against the Padres was a 5-4 Dodgers loss where he gave up three solo home runs as his only hits allowed over five innings.
The PADRES (+145) are getting their trade deadline splurge—SP Mike Clevinger—back in the nick of time. The injury to Castro means C Austin Nola is catching Clevinger in Game 1 and Clevinger has had much better results throwing to Nola over Castro.
He’s had two outings with both and throwing to Nola, Clevinger has two quality starts with 13 frames (six innings in his two starts with Castro), a 1.50 ERA (6.00 ERA with Castro) and opposing batters have a worse slash line in each category.
Nevermind Clevinger being their best starter, the Padres are a young team that has thrived off of energy and Clevinger’s return should be a boost of morale for an explosive San Diego team with the NL’s second-best record (37-23) heading into its first postseason since 2006.
Let’s splash on PADRES (+145) to steal Game 1. New to sports betting? A $50 bet on the Padres (+145) pays out a profit of $72.50 if San Diego upsets Los Angeles.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
GOTTA TAKE PADRES +1.5 (-143) as insurance for our money line wager. It’s as simple as that. There are no interesting trends to use and the season series run line record is tied 5-5 this year.
A $71.50 bet on the Padres +1.5 (-143) cashes a $50 profit if San Diego wins or loses by a single run.
Over/Under (O/U)
PASS ON THE TOTAL in Padres-Dodgers. If this goes bad for San Diego and Clevinger can’t recapture his pre-injury form, the Dodgers could hit the Over (8.5) themselves.
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