The San Francisco Giants (95-50) host the San Diego Padres (74-70) Wednesday for the third game of their four-game series at Oracle Park. First pitch is scheduled for 9:45 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Padres vs. Giants odds with MLB picks and predictions.
San Francisco has steamrolled San Diego in the first two games of this series by a combined score of 15-2.
Also see: 2021 World Series odds for all teams
Season series: Giants lead 7-4.
RHP Joe Musgrove is San Diego’s projected starter. Musgrove is 10-9 with a 2.93 ERA (159 2/3 IP, 52 ER), 1.03 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 across 27 starts and one relief appearance.
- Last outing: Loss, 3-0, with 6 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 5 BB and 7 K at the Los Angeles Dodgers Friday.
- Musgrove has lost both starts against San Francisco this season and has an 8.10 ERA (10 IP, 9 ER) with 12 H, 2 BB and 13 K.
- vs. Giants on the current roster (96 PA): 2.97 FIP with a .227 batting average (BA), .297 wOBA, .311 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 32.3 K% and 83.4 mph exit velocity (EV).
RHP Dominic Leone takes the ball as an opener for San Francisco’s bullpen day. Leone is 3-3 with a 1.41 ERA (44 2/3 IP, 7 ER), 1.03 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in three starts and 43 relief appearances.
- Last outing: No-decision in San Francisco’s 9-1 win over San Diego Monday with 2 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 0 BB and 1 K.
- vs. Padres on the current roster (36 PA): 4.43 FIP with a .242 BA, .292 wOBA, .464 xSLG, 16.7 K% and 85.7 mph EV.
Padres at Giants odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Padres -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Giants -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Padres -1.5 (+155) | Giants +1.5 (-190)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -102 | U: -122)
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Prediction
Giants 4, Padres 3
Money line (ML)
Slight “LEAN” to the GIANTS (-110) for a tiny wager because I have no choice but to bet baseball’s best team if you’re giving me a coin-flip price.
It’s a bit “square” since we have a “pros vs. joes” situation in the betting market (more on that below), but oddsmakers are reacting to the public’s action on San Francisco by making the Giants’ money line more expensive.
Musgrove is less effective on the road; he’s got a 4.25 road FIP (2.82 FIP at home), 16.8% K-BB (24.5% K-BB at home) and a lower home run per nine-inning rate in San Diego.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS as much as I’d love some insurance on our San Francisco money line play because the implied win probability of the Giants +1.5 (-190) is 65.52%, but their cover rate as a home underdog is only 58.8% (10-7 ATS).
Since I only “lean” toward San Francisco outright, I am also unwilling to lay it with Giants -1.5 (+180) on the alternate line.
Furthermore, the presumed “sharp” money is backing San Diego’s money line whereas the public is betting San Francisco according to pregame.com, so laying it with the Giants on the alternate line is too risky of a proposition.
Over/Under (O/U)
BET UNDER 8.5 (-122) for 1 unit since both sides of the market are betting the Under hence it being way more expensive than the Over.
San Diego’s lineup has been awful lately and San Francisco’s bullpen has been dialed in. Padres hitters rank dead-last in WAR, wRC+ and wOBA over the last two weeks, while the Giants’ relievers are 6-1 with the best ERA over that span.
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