The San Diego Padres (74-69) meet the San Francisco Giants (94-50) Tuesday for the second game of their four-game series at Oracle Park. First pitch is scheduled for 9:45 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Padres vs. Giants odds with MLB picks and predictions.
San Francisco clobbered San Diego 9-1 in the series opener Monday as the Giants came out the gate with a 5-run bottom of the first inning and finished with 4 home runs in the game.
Also see: 2021 World Series odds for all teams
Season series: Giants lead 6-4.
RHP Jake Arrieta is San Diego’s projected starter. He is 5-12 with a 7.04 ERA (94 2/3 IP, 74 ER), 1.73 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 across 22 starts for the Padres and Chicago Cubs.
- Last outing: No-decision, 6-3, with 5 IP, 3 ER, 3 H, 1 BB and 3 K Sept. 3 against the Houston Astros.
- Arrieta lost at San Francisco, 8-5, June 4 while pitching for the Cubs with a stat line of 2 IP, 6 ER, 6 H, 2 BB and 1 K.
- vs. Giants on the current roster (146 PA): 3.23 FIP with a .194 batting average (BA), .240 wOBA, .355 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 26.7 K% and 87.7 mph exit velocity (EV).
RHP Anthony DeSclafani is on the mound for the Giants. He is 11-6 with a 3.33 ERA (146 IP, 54 ER), 1.12 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 through 27 starts.
- Last outing: No-decision in San Francisco’s 7-4 victory at the Colorado Rockies Wednesday with 4 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 1 BB and 5 K.
- DeSclafani is 0-1 through three starts with a 3.86 ERA (16 1/3 IP, 7 ER), 11 H, 6 BB and 10 K this season against San Diego.
- vs. Padres on the current roster (129 PA): 5.01 FIP with a .205 BA, .285 wOBA, .426 xSLG, 20.2 K% and 91.6 mph EV.
Padres at Giants odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 4:05 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Padres +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Giants -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Padres +1.5 (-135) | Giants -1.5 (+110)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)
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Prediction
Giants 8, Padres 4
Money line (ML)
PASS even though the Giants (-190) are clearly the right side because we’d be getting the worst of the number. San Francisco opened as a -154 consensus market favorite before both sides steamed them up to the current price.
There’s heavy one-sided action in San Francisco’s direction and maybe if this were the NFL or NBA I’d be down to fade such a lopsided market but there’s less recreational money in MLB betting markets and fading the Giants this season would’ve destroyed a gambler’s bankroll.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
“LEAN” to the GIANTS -1.5 (+110) for a half unit because they have a sizeable edge in the starting pitching and hitting matchup and even San Francisco’s bullpen has pitched better than San Diego’s recently.
The Padres’ relief unit has been a strength for them all season but over the past 14 days, San Diego’s bullpen has the fourth-worst FIP, seventh-worst home run per nine-inning rate and the third-worst WAR.
It’s tough to have any confidence in Arrieta against this awesome San Francisco lineup but the Giants could for sure pad whatever lead they have against the Padres’ struggling bullpen.
Over/Under (O/U)
Both sides of the market are barrelling into the OVER 8.5 (-130) hence it being the far pricier side and I’d have to agree that the Over is the right side.
San Diego went Over the total in four of its last five games, San Francisco hit the Over in three straight and the Over cashed in six consecutive Padres-Giants meetings.
Also, San Diego will most likely need its bullpen to step up because Arrieta has a 12.17 ERA over his last seven starts and DeSclafani’s effectiveness has regressed since the All-Star Game. DeSclafani’s ERA, WHIP, home run per nine-inning rate and opponent’s OPS has all been much worse in the second half of the year.
BET OVER 8.5 (-130) for 1 unit.
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