The San Diego Padres (78-78) meet the Los Angeles Dodgers (100-56) Tuesday for the start of their three-game series at Dodger Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Padres vs. Dodgers odds with MLB picks and predictions.
San Diego’s collapse out of playoff contention is complete after officially being eliminated and winning just 9 of its last 30 games. The Padres enter Tuesday on a three-game losing skid and have won just once in the last nine games.
L.A. has won seven of its last 10 games and trails the San Francisco Giants by 2 games for first place in the NL West and home-field advantage throughout the postseason.
Season series: Dodgers lead 9-7.
RHP Yu Darvish makes his 30th start for the Padres. Darvish is 8-10 with a 4.21 ERA (162 1/3 IP, 76 ER), 1.07 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: No-decision with 5 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 3 H, 3 BB and 7 K in San Diego’s 7-6 home win over the Giants Thursday.
- Darvish is 2-2 against L.A. this season with a 2.42 ERA (26 IP, 7 ER), 0.73 WHIP and 5.0 K/BB in four starts.
- vs. Dodgers on the current roster: 3.50 FIP with a .163 batting average (BA), .249 wOBA, .306 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 33.6 K% and 88.1 mph exit velocity (EV) in 149 plate appearances (PA).
RHP Walker Buehler is on the hill for the Dodgers. Buehler is 14-4 with a 2.58 ERA (195 2/3 IP, 56 ER), 0.98 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 over 31 starts.
- Last outing: No-decision in L.A.’s 10-5 loss at the Colorado Rockies Wednesday with 3 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 0 BB and 2 K.
- Buehler is 1-0 in four starts against San Diego this season with a 2.03 ERA (26 2/3 IP, 6 ER), 0.90 WHIP and 6.5 K/BB.
- vs. Padres on the current roster: 3.73 FIP with a .194 BA, .253 wOBA, .446 xSLG, 27.1 K% and 89.8 mph EV in 170 PA.
Padres at Dodgers odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3:00 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Padres +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Dodgers -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Padres +1.5 (-140) | Dodgers -1.5 (+115)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)
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Prediction
Dodgers 5, Padres 1
Money line (ML)
“LEAN” to the DODGERS (-190) for a half unit since Buehler’s effectiveness has tailed off a bit in September.
For instance, this month is Buehler’s worst by winning percentage, WHIP, K/BB and ERA. In fact, Buehler’s ERA in September is 7.32.
That said, Darvish’s struggles have coincided with San Diego’s decline and MLB’s pitching substance policy that went into effect June 21. Since then, Darvish is 2-8 with a 5.97 ERA, a .798 opponent’s OPS and has allowed 19 home runs in 15 starts.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Slight “LEAN” to the DODGERS -1.5 (+115) for a tiny wager because L.A. still has the edge in starting pitching, and the difference between each ball clubs’ bullpen this month is staggering.
In September, San Diego’s bullpen ranks 23rd in xFIP, 21st in home run per nine-inning rate and 24th in ERA. While L.A.’s bullpen has the best ERA in the majors and the eighth-best home run per nine-inning rate.
Over/Under (O/U)
PASS with a slight “lean” to the Under 7.5 (-107) because of “sharp line movement” heading south of the total, which has caused oddsmakers to move the Padres-Dodgers total down from the 8-run opener.
However, since we are arriving to the party a little late, and I don’t have a strong enough handicap on the total in this contest – I’ll stay away.
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