The Los Angeles Dodgers (90-53) host the San Diego Padres (74-67) Sunday for the finale of their three-game series at Dodger Stadium with the first pitch scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Padres vs. Dodgers odds with MLB picks and predictions.
L.A. won the first two games of the series by a combined score of 8-4 as NL Cy Young contender Walker Buehler gave the Dodgers a quality start and OF Mookie Betts went 2-for-3 with a home run and 4 RBIs in Saturday’s 5-4 win.
Season series: Dodgers lead 8-7.
Padres LHP Blake Snell is 7-6 with a 4.22 ERA (128 IP, 60 ER), 1.33 WHIP, 4.9 BB/9 and 12.0 K/9 in 26 starts.
- Last outing: Loss, 4-0, with 7 IP, 2 ER, 1 H, 2 BB and 11 K Tuesday against the Los Angeles Angels.
- Snell is 1-0 with a 1.96 ERA (23 IP, 5 ER), 1.00 WHIP and 4.1 K/BB through four starts against the Dodgers this season.
- vs. Dodgers on the current roster (145 PA): 3.56 FIP with a .198 batting average (BA), .271 wOBA, .470 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 30.3 K% and 87.7 mph exit velocity (EV).
Dodgers RHP Max Scherzer is 13-4 with a 2.28 ERA (154 IP, 39 ER), 0.86 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 12.3 K/9 in 26 starts for the Dodgers and Washington Nationals.
- Last outing: Win, 5-1, with 8 IP, 1 unearned run, 6 H, 0 BB and 13 K Monday at the St. Louis Cardinals.
- Scherzer is 1-0 with a 5.40 ERA (18 1/3 IP, 11 ER), 0.87 WHIP and 4.0 K/BB in three starts against San Diego.
- vs. Padres on the current roster (210 PA): 3.04 FIP with a .211 BA, .289 wOBA, .380 xSLG, 35.2 K% and 90.8 mph EV.
Padres at Dodgers odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:05 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Padres +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Dodgers -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Padres +1.5 (-145) | Dodgers -1.5 (+120)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -105 | U:-120)
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Prediction
Padres 4, Dodgers 2
Money line (ML)
“LEAN” with a half-unit wager on the PADRES (+145) because we are seeing some “reverse line movement” (RLM) in the betting market and I like San Diego’s run line for some insurance.
Uggghhh, this feels square because I’m relying on Snell to keep up his perhaps unsustainable pitching performance against the defending champs and Scherzer to continue his struggles against a Padres lineup that’s significantly underperformed expectations this season.
However, this is why San Diego acquired Snell this offseason. The Padres are freefalling out of playoff positioning, their hitting is mediocre, at best, and they desperately need Snell to be a “stopper” Sunday.
His advanced numbers against the Dodgers back up his performance against them this year and he is the only reason I have to explain the RLM toward San Diego.
Nearly 90% of the cash wagered is on the Dodgers but their price has been lowered from the -195 price point. It’s always a red flag when the oddsmakers try to entice more action on the more popular side by making them cheaper.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
BET PADRES +1.5 (-145) for a half unit because it’s the wiser wager hence it being pretty expensive. The reason for San Diego’s run line price is the Padres are 13-5 ATS as road underdogs and L.A. is just 33-38 ATS as a home favorite.
Also, we have a “pros vs. joes” scenario in the betting market accompanied by some sharp line movement in San Diego’s direction. More than 60% of the cash is on the Padres’ run line while nearly two-thirds of the bets placed are with the Dodgers, according to Pregame.com.
Typically, in sports betting, it’s better to follow the money especially when it’s flowing in the opposite direction as the public. The presumed sharp money has pushed San Diego’s run line from -117 on the opener to the listed price.
Over/Under (O/U)
Aside from Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado, the Padres can’t count on anyone at the plate and Snell has been throwing gas against the Dodgers this year. Also, Scherzer has to be champing at the bit to get right against San Diego.
That said, an overwhelming majority of the market agrees with this take and I hate following a crowd in sports betting. “LEAN” to the UNDER 7.5 (-120) for a half unit.
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