The San Diego Padres (74-66) clash with the NL West rival Los Angeles Dodgers (89-53) in the second game of their three-game set at Dodger Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 9:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Padres vs. Dodgers odds with MLB picks and predictions.
L.A. shutout San Diego 3-0 Friday in the series opener as Dodgers starting LHP Julio Urias had 7 IP with 3 H, 1 BB and 7 K and 1B Max Muncy‘s 2-run homer in the 3rd-inning was enough for the win.
Season series: Tied 7-7.
RHP Chris Paddack takes the hill for the Padres. Paddack is 7-6 with a 4.95 ERA (103 2/3 IP, 57 ER), 1.27 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 in 21 starts and one relief appearance.
- Last outing: No-decision in San Diego’s 4-3 home victory over the Houston Astros Sunday with a stat line of 6 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 0 BB and 0 K.
- Road splits: 4-2 with a 3.74 ERA (55 1/3 IP, 23 ER), 0.99 WHIP and 6.6 K/9 in 11 starts.
- vs. Dodgers on the current roster (69 PA): 6.48 FIP with a .344 batting average (BA), .446 wOBA, .559 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 17.4 K% and 92.0 mph exit velocity (EV).
RHP Walker Buehler is L.A.’s projected starter. Buehler is 13-3 with a 2.31 ERA (179 IP, 46 ER), 0.94 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 in 28 starts.
- Last outing: Loss, 6-4, with 3 IP, 6 ER, 7 H, 1 BB and 1 K Sunday at the San Francisco Giants.
- Buehler has three no-decisions this year against San Diego with a 1.83 ERA (19 2/3 IP, 4 ER), 0.81 WHIP and 10.5 K/BB in three starts.
- vs. Padres on the current roster (150 PA): 3.67 FIP with a .180 BA, .238 wOBA, .443 xSLG, 28.0 K% and 88.8 mph EV.
Padres at Dodgers odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3:35 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Padres +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Dodgers -230 (bet $230 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Padres +1.5 (-120) | Dodgers -1.5 (+100)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -120 | U:-105)
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Prediction
Dodgers 4, Padres 2
Money line (ML)
PASS because the Dodgers (-230) exceeds my buy price of -180 for L.A. in this spot and we’re seeing slight “reverse line movement” in the betting market thus far.
According to Pregame.com, nearly 90% of the action is on L.A. money line but the Dodgers have gotten cheaper by 10 cents on the dollar since the opener. It’s suspicious whenever a sportsbook makes the far more popular side cheaper.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
“LEAN” to the DODGERS -1.5 (+100) for a half unit because Paddack is a fringe rotation guy for the Padres and has scary pitching peripherals against L.A.’s lineup. While Buehler has pitched well vs. San Diego despite not picking up a win yet and has the best odds to win the NL Cy Young.
Over/Under (O/U)
TAKE UNDER 7.5 (-105) for 1 unit because both lineups have struggled recently and the Under is 3-0-1 in the last four Padres-Dodgers meetings.
Both San Diego’s and L.A.’s lineup has been below-average in wRC+, wOBA and WAR over the last two weeks, with the Dodgers being ranked worse surprisingly. Also, each bullpen has been a top-tier unit this year.
I’m expecting a playoff-like atmosphere as these teams are currently the two NL Wild Card seeds with L.A. being just 2.5 games back of first in the NL West and San Diego trying to fend off the Cincinnati Reds for the second NL Wild Card berth. Typically, MLB playoff games are tighter and lower scoring.
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