The Los Angeles Angels (63-66) host the San Diego Padres (68-61) for a two-game interleague series beginning Friday at Angel Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 9:38 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Padres vs. Angels odds with MLB picks and predictions.
San Diego lost eight of its last nine games and 14 of its last 20, and now sits two games back of the Cincinnati Reds for the second National League wild-card berth.
L.A. lost five of its last six games including two in a row against a Baltimore Orioles team that had lost 19 straight games before beating the Angels Wednesday.
RHP Joe Musgrove gets the nod for the Padres. He is 8-8 with a 3.04 ERA (139 1/3 IP, 47 ER), 1.02 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 10.3 K/9 through 24 starts and one relief appearance.
- Last outing: No-decision with 6 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 2 BB and 9 K in San Diego’s 4-3 win over the Philadelphia Phillies Saturday.
- 2021 road stats: 3-4 with a 3.86 ERA (63 IP, 27 ER), 1.06 WHIP and 3.7 K/BB in 11 starts and one relief outing.
L.A. hasn’t officially announced a starter yet, but LHP Packy Naughton is expected to make his first start of the year.
He gave up 1 ER, 2 H, 1 BB with 0 K in 1 IP of work out of the bullpen in the Angels’ 8-2 loss Aug. 8 to the Los Angeles Dodgers in his only appearance this season.
Padres at Angels odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3:35 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Padres -220 (bet $220 to win $100) | Angels +180 (bet $100 to win $180)
- Against the spread/ATS: Padres -1.5 (-130) | Angels +1.5 (+105)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -135 | U: +110)
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Prediction
Padres 7, Angels 3
Money line (ML)
This ought to be a slump-buster for a Padres (-220) team whose season is sputtering and needs to get back on a winning track. The Angels just lost two of three games against the doormats of the AL and gave up 31 runs against the Orioles earlier this week.
There’s a huge talent mismatch between the Padres and Angels favoring San Diego, but the Padres lost their only two games as a road favorite greater than -180 and Musgrove was the starter for both games. Also, San Diego has a losing record as a road favorite.
PASS ON THE MONEY LINE.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Slight “LEAN” to the PADRES -1.5 (-130) for a tiny wager if at all. I think they are the right side, but even this price is a little too expensive given how poorly San Diego has played recently.
The Padres are 11-2 ATS in interleague contests and the Angels are 6-10 ATS. L.A.’s bullpen is getting launched on this week and Angels relievers have the fourth-highest ERA and sixth-highest HR/9 over the last seven days.
Over/Under (O/U)
TAKE the OVER 0.5 (-115) in the FIRST INNING as Musgrove has his worst ERA, opponent OPS and most home runs allowed in the first inning compared to any other innings split.
On top of that, you know SS/OF Fernando Tatis Jr. and 3B Manny Machado are eager to get right against L.A.’s rookie starter.
L.A.’s lineup has its highest OPS and most home runs hit in the 1st inning and SP/DH Shohei Ohtani has hit eight first-inning home runs this year.
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