The San Antonio Spurs (14-19) meet the Memphis Grizzlies (22-14) Friday for an 8 p.m. ET tip-off at the FedExForum. Below, we look at the Spurs vs. Grizzlies odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
San Antonio had its three-game winning streak snapped Monday in a 110-104 loss to the Utah Jazz, but the Spurs covered as 7-point home underdogs.
In the last 14 days, San Antonio is 4-2 straight-up (SU), 5-1 ATS, and 4-2 O/U with the second-best adjusted net rating at plus-13.2 points per 100 possessions, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).
Memphis squeaked past the Los Angeles Lakers 104-99 Wednesday as 6-point home favorites to win its third consecutive game.
The Grizzlies are 4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS, and 4-3 O/U over the past two weeks with the 12th-ranked adjusted net rating at plus-3.2 points per 100 possessions (CTG).
Memphis beat San Antonio in all three meetings last season, covering in two of those victories, and the total was 2-1 O/U in those contests.
Spurs at Grizzlies odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:50 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Spurs +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Grizzlies -230 (bet $230 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Spurs +5.5 (-110) | Grizzlies -5.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 226.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Spurs at Grizzlies key injuries
Spurs
- PG Dejounte Murray (health and safety protocols) out
- SG Lonnie Walker IV (knee) questionable
Grizzlies
- SG Dillon Brooks (health and safety protocols) out
- SG De’Anthony Melton (health and safety protocols) out
- SG John Konchar (health and safety protocols) out
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Spurs at Grizzlies odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Spurs 113, Grizzlies 109
Money line
“SPRINKLE” a small wager on the SPURS (+180) because they are better than their record indicates and I like the value of San Antonio’s spread.
For instance, San Antonio has the second-worst win differential at minus-4.0 according to adjusted net rating, which essentially means the Spurs should have four more wins than they currently do.
Furthermore, San Antonio can neutralize Memphis’s fastbreak offense. The Spurs have the third-best defensive efficiency vs. transition offense and allow the third-fewest fastbreak points per game.
Also, don’t sleep on the absences of Brooks and Melton for the Grizzlies. Brooks grades in the 90th percentile of wings in on/off adjusted net rating at plus-10.3 points per 100 possessions and Melton grades in the 72nd percentile of combo guards at plus-4.6 points per 100 possessions (CTG).
That said, San Antonio plus the points is the much sharper play so it’s only a “LEAN” towards the SPURS (+180) with the plan of putting a full unit on their spread.
Against the spread
Definitely BET the SPURS +5.5 (-110) heavier than or instead of the money line since this is a better spot for San Antonio who has covered four straight games entering Friday.
On top of that, the Spurs are 7-1 ATS when getting spotted 5-7 points and 9-4 ATS as a road underdog with a plus-7.7 spread differential. Whereas, Memphis is 6-8 ATS as a home favorite.
For what it’s worth, the SPURS +5.5 (-110) is my favorite play in this game.
Over/Under
Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 226.5 (-110) for a small wager, if at all, because the Spurs are 5-10-1 O/U on the road with a minus-5.8 margin on the total and the Grizzlies have the best defensive rating this month.
That said, I can only “lean” to the Under because San Antonio has gone Over the total in its last eight vs. teams with a winning record and the Over has cashed in five of the last six Spurs-Grizzlies meetings.
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