The Indiana Pacers (26-30) play their second game in as many days when they host the San Antonio Spurs (27-28) Monday at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. Tip-off is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Spurs-Pacers odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.
Indiana has lost back-to-back games and three of the past four (2-2 against the spread) with all three losses being to winning teams including a 129-117 dusting yesterday by the Atlanta Hawks as 2-point road underdogs.
San Antonio broke a two-game losing skid by pasting the Phoenix Suns 111-85 Saturday as 12.5-point road underdogs.
Over the past two weeks, the Spurs are 3-5 overall, 4-4 ATS and are 3 games ahead of the Sacramento Kings for 10th in the Western Conference (7- through 10-seeds participate in the postseason play-in).
The Pacers beat the Spurs 139-133 in overtime April 3. Indiana has won back-to-back against San Antonio, five of the past six and have covered eight of the last nine meetings.
Spurs at Pacers: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:35 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Spurs -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Pacers -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Spurs -1 (-110) | Pacers +1 (-110)
- Over/Under: 231.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Spurs at Pacers: Key injuries
Spurs
- PF Trey Lyles (ankle) probable
Pacers
- SF Doug McDermott (ankle) probable
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Spurs at Pacers: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Spurs 119, Pacers 114
Money line (ML)
San Antonio does a really good job defending what Indiana does frequently, which is attacking the rim.
The Pacers attempt the most field goals within five feet of the basket while the Spurs have the best defensive field goal percentage vs. attempts within five feet of the hoop.
Also, the Spurs are more composed to end games — San Antonio is sixth in turnover percentage in clutch situations and Indiana is 27th.
This stat probably goes a long way in explaining the Spurs’ 6-4 ATS record when laying between 1-2.5 points and the Pacers’ 3-6 ATS record when being spotted points in that range.
And even though this is technically a money line bet, these trends apply because betting San Antonio to win costs only five more cents on the dollar than its spread.
BET SPURS (-115) for 1 unit.
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Against the spread (ATS)
PASS since the money lines and spreads are nearly identical so there isn’t any value in the points in either direction.
Over/Under (O/U)
Slight “LEAN” to the OVER 231.5 (-110) for a quarter unit because Spurs-Pacers total opened at 229.5 but has been steamed down despite nearly 90% being on the money is on the Under, according to Pregame.com.
This line movement tells me that bookmakers want more money on the Under and we don’t want to play into the House’s hand.
Furthermore, the Over has cashed in four straight Spurs-Pacers games, four of San Antonio’s past six games and four of Indiana’s last five.
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