NFL.com’s Cynthia Frelund did her season projections after the NFL schedule release, and it doesn’t look good for Dennis Allen and the New Orleans Saints. Frelund based her totals off talent, opponents, and sequencing of the schedule. Consecutive tough games is valued differently than three tough games in 7 weeks. She ran 150,000 simulations, and these were her results.
Frelund projects the Saints will finish with 7.4 wins, which rounds down to a 7-10 record. That’s a two-game drop from last year’s 9-8 record. This outcome would draw a mix of disappointing and slightly unsurprised reactions. The Saints have a very similar roster to last year, so staying in the same win range as 2023 isn’t unreasonable. Coaching changes, however, spark optimism of a more successful season. Getting worse would be a definite disappointment.
7-10 would match New Orleans’ 2022 record and be the second losing season in Dennis Allen’s Saints tenure. It very well could be his last. The amount of pressure Allen is under is unclear, but it doesn’t feel like he should be able to survive a losing season this year.
By Frelund’s projections, New Orleans would finish third in the division and a distance from the playoff picture. Tampa Bay is close with 7.8 victories, but that rounds to 8 wins. To no surprise, Atlanta is projected to win the division with 9.9 victories, which is good for fourth most in the NFC. The Saints would be faced with major questions if the season transpires this way, so Dennis Allen’s team must beat those expectations.
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