The Sacramento Kings (12-17) visit the Milwaukee Bucks (17-13) Sunday at the Fiserv Forum for a 9 p.m. ET tip-off. Below, we analyze the Kings-Bucks odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.
Sacramento has lost six consecutive games straight-up and ATS including a 122-114 loss to the Chicago Bulls last night. The Kings are 9-6-1 ATS with a plus-1.9-point ATS margin in the second of a back-to-back since the beginning of last season.
The Bucks snapped a five-game losing skid (straight-up and ATS) by beating the Oklahoma City Thunder 98-85 as an 11-point home favorite. Milwaukee swept Sacramento in last year’s season series 2-0 and has won eight straight over the Kings (7-1 ATS).
Kings at Bucks: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 4:30 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Kings +400 (bet $100 to win $400) | Bucks -550 (bet $550 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Kings +10.5 (-115) | Bucks -11.5 (-105)
- Over/Under: 239.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Kings at Bucks: Key injuries
Kings
- SF Harrison Barnes (foot) questionable
- C Richaun Holmes (knee) questionable
- SF Glenn Robinson III (knee) out
Bucks
- PG Jrue Holiday (COVID-19) out
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Kings at Bucks: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Bucks 118, Kings 112
Money line (ML)
PASS because Milwaukee’s recent losses keep it from looking ahead of a bad Sacramento squad.
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Against the spread (ATS)
There are a few reasons to like KINGS +10.5 (-115) in this spot.
First, according to Pregame.com, this is a Pros vs. Joes situation in the betting market with more money coming in on the Kings, but more bets have been placed on the Bucks. Typically the sharp side of the betting market is the money column and the public money is the tickets column.
Second, one of the major reasons for the difference in opinion is due to the possible returns of Kings wing Harrison Barnes and big Richaun Holmes. They have the best on-off court net rating of the five Sacramento starters, and CleaningTheGlass.com grades Holmes in the 90th percentile of bigs in on-off team defensive efficiency and Barnes in the 80th percentile of wings.
Holmes’ and Barnes’ return to the lineup would be huge for the Kings in this spot as they try to minimize the damage done by All-NBA Bucks Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton.
And while Sacramento has struggled recently, Milwaukee hasn’t been much better. The Kings hung around against an underrated Bulls team last night but failed to cover mostly because they couldn’t get stops down the stretch.
I like the Kings to step up defensively against the Bucks tonight if Holmes and Barnes return because Milwaukee is aggressive offensively and has the 2nd-lowest offensive FT/FGA rate.
BET KINGS +10.5 (-115) for 1.25 units if Holmes and Barnes suit up.
Over/Under (O/U)
PASS because my read is that Sacramento’s defense needs to show up—and it will if healthy—for the Kings to cover this game. But, these teams have a combined 36-22-1 O/U record this season.
Also, I cannot bring myself to bet an Over in a game pitting Milwaukee’s offensive juggernaut against Sacramento’s Swiss cheese defense. Furthermore, if we are taking the Kings to cover we might be rooting for a backdoor cover, which would most likely push the game Over as well.
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