The Dallas Mavericks (30-25) host the Sacramento Kings (22-34) Sunday for a 7:30 p.m. ET tip-off at American Airlines Center. Below, we analyze the Kings-Mavericks odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.
Sacramento’s playoff hopes are fading as the Kings have lost nine straight (2-7 against the spread) and are 12th in the Western Conference, 5.5 games back of the 10-seed San Antonio Spurs (the final spot in the postseason play-in).
Dallas is 7th in the West (the first spot in the postseason play-in) and 2 games back of the 6-seed Portland Trail Blazers.
The Mavs have lost three of four (0-4 ATS) with the latest being a 117-109 to the New York Knicks Friday loss as 6.5-point home favorites.
Dallas won three of four games with Sacramento last season including three straight, but the Mavs are just 1-2-1 ATS in those meetings.
Kings at Mavericks: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:40 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Kings +300 (bet $100 to win $300) | Mavericks -375 (bet $375 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Kings +8.5 (-110) | Mavericks -8.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 230.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Kings at Mavericks: Key injuries
Kings
- PF Marvin Bagley (hand) out
- C Richaun Holmes (hamstring) out
Mavericks
- Nothing affecting gambling odds.
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Kings at Mavericks: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Mavericks 116, Kings 111
Money line (ML)
PASS because even though Dallas should be easy money in this spot, the Mavericks (-375) is too steep a price to pay for an outright winner in NBA regular-season action.
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Against the spread (ATS)
“LEAN” to the KINGS +8.5 (-110) for .75 units because Holmes has the second-best on-off net rating in Sacramento’s starting 5, and of course, the Kings are awful.
However, the Mavericks haven’t been impressive vs. weaker competition this season. For instance, Dallas is 6-9 ATS when laying more than 5 points and 2-9 at home vs. teams with a losing record.
Furthermore, Sacramento is 25th in net rating, but according to CleaningTheGlass.com, Dallas is 20th in net efficiency and has the second-to-last ATS margin (minus-3.7 points) vs. teams in the bottom-10 of net efficiency.
Finally, according to Pregame.com, nearly 95% of the money wagered at the time of publishing has been on the Mavs to cover and, simply put, 95% of sports bets do not cash. This lopsided of a market is ripe for fading.
TAKE KINGS +8.5 (-110) for .75 units.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the UNDER 230.5 (-110) for a quarter unit because I prefer the side more than the total in Kings-Mavericks.
That being said, the “sharp” side of the market likes a low-scoring game as more money has been wagered on the Under while more bets have been placed with the Over, according to Pregame.com.
Typically, the “sharp” side of the market is considered the money column whereas the “average joe” makes up the tickets column.
Also, the Kings have gone Under in five of their eight games in April and the Mavs have gone Under in six of nine this month.
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