Rolling the dice: The biggest risks in the 2020 NFL Draft

The NFL Draft is about managing risk. Every selection carries a bit of downside. Who are some risky propositions in the 2020 NFL Draft?

Second-Tier Offensive Tackles

(Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports)

One of the truisms about this draft class is that there is a “Big Four” at the offensive tackle position. You could even go beyond that and say there is a “Fab Five.” Tristian Wirfs, Jedrick Wills Jr., Andrew Thomas and Mekhi Becton currently constitute the “Big Four,” and you can arrange them in almost any order and be confident in your analysis. Sliding in Josh Jones from Houston to make it a “Fab Five” probably is not a bad idea either, given what he put on film and how he performed at the Senior Bowl.

Beyond that, however, it gets a bit dicey.

Consider the second tier of offensive tackles. Names currently bandied about are Ezra Cleveland, Austin Jackson, Jack Driscoll, and Ben Bartch. Cleveland, the Boise State product, played himself into early Day Two contention with a strong performance at the Combine. His 4.93 40-yard dash placed him in the 97th percentile among tackles, and his 4.46 20-yard shuttle landed him in the 96th percentile. His 30 bench press reps also demonstrated that he could “prepare for the test” as it were. The problem becomes the level of competition. Boise State did not play the toughest slate over the past two years, and that makes for a difficult sell.

Jackson might be next on that list, and a bet on him is a bet perhaps on potential. Jackson is just 20 years old, so the upside is enticing. But he has lots of technical areas to address. His hand placement can be slow at times, he play strength needs to improve, and he is often vulnerable to power moves at the point of attack. What could work in his favor is how last season he was slowed as a result of a medical procedure he underwent to aid his sister, who is battling a rare blood disorder. Jackson donated bone marrow in the off-season prior to the 2019 campaign, which put him in a difficult position when the season started, because he was not yet back to full strength. Perhaps teams examine his 2019 film through that prism, and view it more favorably as a result.

Then there is perhaps Jack Driscoll, the Auburn offensive tackle. Pro Football Focus terms him the “sleeper” of this offensive tackle class, but there are still some question marks. He is undersized as far as NFL OTs go, and while he managed to get up to 306 pounds for the Combine he was under that 300 mark at the East-West Shrine Game. Driscoll’s lack of size shows up on the field, as he struggles against power moves. He has the agility you love to see from a tackle, it is a matter of keeping that while adding strength and weight.

Speaking of adding strength and weight, you could also look at Ben Bartch. The Division III prospect gained national attention when the weight gain concoction he used to add 70 pounds in college was discovered. Bartch also did what you want to see a small school prospect do on film: Dominate lower level competition. He looked the part at the Senior Bowl, where at times it seemed he was the best tackle there. But is a team going to be willing to turn over their left tackle spot to a D3 kid?