In a showdown involving the NBA’s most recent three MVPs (Giannis Antetokounmpo, James Harden, and Russell Westbrook) and perhaps serving as an NBA Finals preview, the Houston Rockets and Milwaukee Bucks will do battle from the Disney World “bubble” on Sunday night.
The Bucks (54-12) narrowly defeated the Boston Celtics in their bubble opener on Friday, while the Rockets (41-24) stunned the Dallas Mavericks with a late rally in their 153-149 overtime victory.
The Bucks have the league’s best record, and they also boast the NBA’s top defensive rating at 101.6. On offense, they rank No. 6 in net rating at 112.2. The Rockets are No. 2 in net offensive rating (113.6), but lag at No. 16 (110.2) on defense. As such, while the Bucks have been elite on defense and very good on offense, the Rockets are numerically elite on offense but mediocre on defense. That would explain why Milwaukee has been 12.5 games better than Houston so far this season.
For the smaller Rockets to pull off the upset, they’ll need to show the form they did in the fourth quarter and overtime in Friday’s victory — when they held the Mavs and their No. 1 offense to just 30 points in 17 game minutes. They know they have to be much better than the franchise record 85 points that they allowed to Dallas in the first half. With regards to the Bucks, the challenge starts with slowing down the reigning MVP.
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“He puts a lot of pressure on you,” Rockets head coach Mike D’Antoni said of the long, athletic, and powerful Antetokounmpo. “He’s going to get some. Don’t give him anything easy, don’t foul him, make him — if you can — shoot jump shots. And try to stay home as much as you can without abandoning all your principles.”
Given Antetokounmpo’s blend of speed and power, expect various defenders in Houston’s switch-heavy scheme — including P.J. Tucker, Robert Covington, and Harden in the post — to draw that primary assignment. “The Beard” excelled as a post defender in Friday’s win over Dallas, limiting 7-foot-3 Kristaps Porzingis to 1-of-7 shooting (14.3%).
James Harden is in the 92nd percentile in post-up defense. Opposing players are shooting 28/88 (~32%) against him this season, and Harden forces turnovers on 13% of possessions.
Friday, per NBA Stats, Harden held Kristaps Porzingis to 1/7 shooting, primarily all post-up attempts pic.twitter.com/MhyxQfye8y
— Alykhan Bijani (@Rockets_Insider) August 1, 2020
The Bucks edged the Rockets, 117-111, in the only other meeting between the teams in the 2019-20 season — way back on opening night on Oct. 24, 2019. Antetokounmpo (30 points, 13 rebounds, 11 assists) and Westbrook (24 points, 16 rebounds, 7 assists) were each in MVP form in that game, but Harden (19 points, 14 assists) had a season-worst shooting performance of 2-of-13 from the field, or 15.4%.
The Bucks outscored the Rockets in the fourth quarter, 39-24, in rallying to that victory at Houston’s Toyota Center.
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Milwaukee’s rangy and physical guards such as Eric Bledsoe, Wesley Matthews, and George Hill gave Harden problems, and he’ll almost certainly need to fare better in Florida for Houston to pull off the upset.
As for today, the Rockets are currently in a tight battle in the Western Conference standings for playoff seeding, with Houston potentially able to finish anywhere from No. 2 to No. 7 among the West’s eight playoff teams. With the NBA’s best record, Milwaukee is almost locked in already as the East’s No. 1 seed. As a result, the Rockets might be the team with more incentive to win on Sunday.
Tip-off of the latest Rockets-Bucks clash is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. Central on Sunday, with a regional broadcast (featuring Houston announcers) available on AT&T SportsNet Southwest and a national telecast on ABC. The game can be streamed via NBA League Pass, and subscribers to ESPN can also watch it through the ESPN App.
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