Rockets gain more clarity on 2023 NBA draft picks, but coin flips await

Houston is closer to learning its first-round pick slots, but tiebreaker coin flips involving the #Rockets and Spurs — along with the Clippers and two other teams — are necessary.

Though they own two of the NBA’s three worst records, the Houston Rockets and San Antonio Spurs each pulled off two improbable victories during the final four days of the 2022-23 regular season. Thus, the longtime Texas rivals finished 22-60. Only the Detroit Pistons (17-65) were worse.

While Houston and San Antonio’s draft-lottery odds of a landing a top-four pick in the 2023 NBA draft — and a shot at a top prospect such as Victor Wembanyama or Scoot Henderson — were already maximized at identical percentages, the final record has odds implications in scenarios in which neither team wins the lottery.

For example, the team with the second-worst record can’t fall below No. 6 in the first-round order, whereas the third-worst team can drop to No. 7 overall. The team in the No. 2 position also has slightly better percentages of finishing at No. 5 or No. 6, as shown here.

So, what happens now that the Rockets and Spurs finished tied? The NBA will soon conduct a coin flip to determine the No. 2 and No. 3 overall slots heading into the lottery, just as they will with other ties. That includes a three-way tie among the Heat, Clippers and Warriors (44-38) between No. 18 and No. 20 in the first round. That outcome affects the Rockets because the  first-round Los Angeles selection is headed to Houston as part of the Eric Gordon trade.

However, the league is not expected to break those ties until at least next Monday, April 17, because there are also ties between teams who will participate in this week’s play-in tournament.

Because the NBA automatically places teams who miss the playoffs ahead of teams who make the playoffs in its draft order, those tiebreaker scenarios require waiting until the play-in field sorts itself out. That won’t be finalized until Friday night, and the league’s next business day after that is the following Monday.

Once that is finalized, the next opportunity for clarity will not come until the much-anticipated 2023 NBA draft lottery on Tuesday, May 16.

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