With Sunday’s season-ending home loss to Atlanta, the Rockets clinched the best odds slot entering the 2022 NBA draft lottery. It is the second straight year that Houston finished with the league’s worst record, and it helped lead them to the No. 2 overall pick (Jalen Green) in 2021.
Though Orlando does not play until later in the day, they can no longer match the Rockets, regardless of the result. They already have 21 wins, and Houston (20-62) has completed all of its regular-season games.
Technically, NBA teams with the worst, second-worst, and third-worst records all have the same probability odds when it comes to landing one of the top-four picks — which will be drawn at the May 17 draft lottery.
However, the competitive advantage of finishing with the “worst” record can be seen in scenarios where the lottery draw is not successful (47.9%).
The team in the No. 1 slot (Houston) cannot finish lower than No. 5 in the first-round order, regardless of the draw. On the other hand, teams at the No. 2 and No. 3 slots can fall as low as No. 6 and No. 7, respectively. Thus, the Rockets are the only NBA team that currently has complete certainty of securing a top-five draft pick in 2022.
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