For one half on Sunday, the Green Bay Packers looked like a heavyweight contender capable of beating anyone in the NFC. For another half, the Packers looked like a lost team primed for a one-and-done January.
The rigid dichotomy of Matt LaFleur’s team was on full display at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.
The Packers have proven capable of producing both the high-level offensive play required of a legitimate Super Bowl contender and the self-destructive tendencies of a playoff team that usually doesn’t last long in January.
For the first 30 minutes, the Packers were a freight train rolling over tracks of dying narratives. Facing the fourth-ranked scoring defense in football, the Packers scored 28 points with relative ease – powered by three touchdown passes from MVP candidate Aaron Rodgers and two takeaways from a defense that must be opportunistic to operate.
At 28-14 going into the break, an impressive road win against a division leader and a great defense looked not only possible but entirely likely.
After halftime, all the ugly propensities of the Packers rose to the surface.
The defense began rupturing against the run and couldn’t get off the field. The offense, in desperate need of a counterpunch to help the defense regain its footing, went three-and-out on back-to-back series. The Colts scored 17 straight points – helped along by a special teams turnover – and would have iced the game in regulation with a late drive had Frank Reich’s team not committed a half-dozen penalties.
To their credit, Rodgers and the Packers drove down the field and had a chance to win the game before tying it with a field goal. And there was a growing sense that Rodgers was ready to lead the offense down the field for another score to start overtime before a heartbreaking fumble ended the possibility.
The Packers were singing an optimistic tune after Sunday’s defeat. And it’s easy to see why: This team dominated the first half and probably still should have beaten a really good football team on the road despite four turnovers. Sunday was both a terrible loss and an encouraging one. It was a rather significant collapse in the second half, eerily reminiscent of the collapse at Lucas Oil Stadium eight years ago. But it also proved, at least for 30 minutes, how good this team could be when everything starts clicking.
The Packers are a Super Bowl contender. This offense and this quarterback can play at an elite level. Numerous examples exist across the first 10 games. On Sunday, the Packers proved they can sustain the elite-level play for at least one half against one of the league’s best defenses. Sustain that level of play over the majority of two or three games in January, and the Packers will be playing the AFC champions in Super Bowl LV.
The Packers are also a prime one-and-done possibility. This team can fall apart and altogether disappear, sometimes for long stretches within games. Suffer any kind of prolonged lapse in January and it’s all over. For as many examples of elite offensive play exist for the Packers, nearly as many crumbling acts can also be found. Sunday’s second half was just the latest example.
There isn’t a perfect, unbeatable team in the NFC this season. It’s a deep conference, but probably not a great one. There are several good teams at the top with clear flaws, just like the Packers.
When the offense is right, this team can beat anyone in the field.
When momentum shifts and bad football starts snowballing uncontrollably, the Packers can lose to anyone, anywhere.
LaFleur’s team is going to be playing postseason football. The Packers will likely be favored in each of their last six games. Getting to 11 or 12 wins and securing the NFC North is by far the team’s most probable outcome.
The end result of the postseason in Titletown will depend on which side of the Packers’ coin consistently turns up when it matters in January.
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