Mock drafts are an extremely non-exact science. Holding even the most respected draft gurus to much accuracy is not really fair because it’s impossible to predict the shift in the winds that can occur with even one unexpected pick or trade up or down the draft.
When a mock draft has even marginal accuracy, it’s applauded, and well it should. But even with the low expectations, there was one mock draft this offseason that really stood out to me for just how ridiculously bad it was with regard to the picks for the Raiders.
The 3-round Pro Football Focus Analyst mock draft.
PFF says this mock draft had a “twist”. Using a disclaimer that it is not a prediction so much as “what they would do” if they were GM. It’s an odd distinction, but okay. And keep in mind, it is still called a mock draft just the same.
Before we get to the Raiders picks, let’s look at the top of the draft, because it got pretty bananas.
Everyone and their grandmother had the top two picks as Joe Burrow to Cincinnati and Chase Young to Washington respectively. They got Burrow, which was a positive start, but then instead of Young at two (where he did end up being drafted), analyst Eric Eager went with Tua Tagovailoa.
Kevin Cole at third overall went with Jeff Okudah as the no-brainer third pick, but then Timo Riske had the Giants at 4 and PASSED ON YOUNG in favor Jerry Jeudy. I mean, what?
With Tua gone and Young still there, Sam Monson scooped up Young at five to the Dolphins. In reality the Dolphins got Tua at that spot.
By the time 12 came around, all three of the draft’s top receivers were gone — Jeudy at 4, Henry Ruggs III at 8 to the Jaguars, and CeeDee Lamb at 11 to the Jets. In the real draft the Jags took CB CJ Henderson and the Jets took OT Mekhi Becton — who dropped to 37 in the 2nd round in the PFF mock.
In the actual draft all three of the top wide receivers were still there when the Raiders picked. But in the PFF mock, with them gone, Eager — you know, the guy who took Tua over Chase Young at second overall — instead went with cornerback Kristian Fulton.
Now, there were quite a few mock draft predictions that had Fulton at 19 to the Raiders, but this was the first I’d seen of them taking him at 12. And they passed on CJ Henderson to do it.
In the actual draft, Henderson was off the board and Fulton was selected 49 spots later at 61 overall to the Titans.
At 19, it was Eager again making the pick for the Raiders. He went with Fulton’s LSU teammate Grant Delpit. In the actual draft, Delpit went 44 to the Browns, but most pegged him as a late first round pick, so it wasn’t a crazy spot for him.
What was a bit crazy was figuring out just how the Raiders were going to address the wide receiver position having not taken one with their top two picks and without a pick until 61 picks later in the third round.
Yeah, about that… I’ll just show you the all the picks PFF made for the Raiders.
Round 1, pick 12 – Kristian Fulton, CB, LSU
Round 1, pick 19 – Grant Delpit, S, LSU
Round 3, pick 80 – Matt Peart, T, UConn
Round 3, pick 81 – Anthony Gordon, QB, Washington St
Round 3, pick 91 – Isaiah Wilson, T, Georgia
Your eyes are not deceiving you. They didn’t take a receiver.
As we know, they actually took two wide receivers in their first four picks, which is what anyone with a clue about the Raiders roster figured they would do. They took three if you include Lynn Bowden Jr who they plan to use as a ‘Joker’ running back.
In the PFF mock, Bryan Edwards and Van Jefferson were on the board when the Raiders picked and they passed on both. In the actual draft, Jefferson was off the board and the Raiders took Edwards.
As ridiculous as it seems to think the Raiders would not draft a wide receiver at all, who the PFF staff selected for them instead might match it.
They would have the Raiders taking two tackles. Why?
In reality the Raiders took no tackles. Because they don’t need tackles. They have two starters under contract long term. One is first round pick Kolton Miller and the other is Trent Brown who was the highest paid tackle in the league this time last year.
The second of those tackles they have the Raiders taking at 91 was Isaiah Wilson who was actually selected in the first round by the Titans. Maybe Eager thought he was drafting for the Titans?
In between those two tackles was quarterback Anthony Gordon… who ended up going undrafted.
This mock was released six days ago. At that time I resisted saying it was a bad mock, giving it a chance to make sense. I said simply that if the Raiders did this, that would be very bad. The Raiders didn’t do this. They did nothing remotely like this. Because that would have been crazy.