Even with the Houston Rockets currently on a historic winning streak, the status of rising star Christian Wood leading up to the February trade deadline for the 2021-22 NBA season is worth monitoring.
After all, even with seven straight wins entering Friday, the Rockets (8-16) still have one of the league’s worst records and aren’t expected to make a playoff push in the very near future. Thus, unless the improbable recent run continues over a much larger sample, Houston would seem to be a team likely to sell off veterans to potential title contenders.
With veterans such as 29-year-old center Daniel Theis and 32-year-old guard Eric Gordon, it appears highly likely for general manager Rafael Stone to explore those markets. With Theis, he’s already fallen out of Houston’s rotation and probably has more value elsewhere, and in the case of Gordon, he’s likely to be past his NBA prime by the time that the Rockets are next ready to make a legitimate playoff push. Thus, there is a clear incentive for Houston to potentially trade both players for assets of more future value (i.e. young prospects or draft considerations).
With Wood, the calculus is more complicated. He’s clearly Houston’s best player at the moment, and at 26 years old, he’s still young enough to where he could easily be in his prime by the time Houston is next ready to make a playoff push. However, it’s also worth noting that Wood is set to become a free agent in 2023, and he will likely want a significant raise.
In a newly released podcast, here’s what ESPN’s Tim MacMahon said this week regarding Wood’s future and what he’s hearing:
The sense that I get is by no means are the Rockets looking to move him. Certainly there’s potential for him to be in his prime when the young guys grow up, and maybe the Rockets are ready to be competitive again. But they’re willing to listen and I think that you know, aside from Jalen Green, the Rockets should be willing to listen to every single guy on the roster.
Over two seasons in Houston, Wood is averaging 19.2 points (49.5% shooting, 36.8% on 3-pointers) and 10.2 rebounds in 32.1 minutes.
Lowe Post podcast: @kpelton and I on what's next for the Blazers (fake trades galore), then @espn_macmahon on blah Mavs, streaking Rockets and Grizzles:
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— Zach Lowe (@ZachLowe_NBA) December 7, 2021
While the Rockets will have Wood’s Bird rights in 2023 and be able to exceed the salary cap to retain him, the question is if Stone will deem that to be prudent, since it could be prohibitive when it comes to having the financial flexibility to pursue other stars in free agency. If Houston has what it views as the foundation of a potential title contender already in place by the 2023 offseason, it would be an easy decision to keep Wood, even if it limits flexibility elsewhere. However, if the Rockets aren’t there yet with the surrounding roster, it would be a tougher call.
The trickiest part for Stone is that if Houston is to trade Wood, his value would likely be higher at the 2022 trade deadline than during the subsequent offseason — since a trade made in February would allow the team receiving Wood to have him for two seasons prior to his free agency, rather than just one. Thus, Stone may need to make an educated guess by February as to what Houston’s status entering July 2023 is likely to be.
Christian Wood asked if he believes he’s playing All-Star caliber basketball: “Yeah, I do. If we keep winning, we keep doing what we’re doing, I believe that’s the next step.” pic.twitter.com/yPU52uWTys
— Mark Berman (@MarkBermanFox26) December 9, 2021
The Rockets could also attempt to speak with Wood’s agency representation and figure out the potential financial terms of his next contract. After all, if Stone is convinced that Wood would have positive trade value on that deal and could easily be offloaded, if needed, there would effectively be no downside to retaining him. However, it isn’t clear what incentive there would be for Wood to commit to any specific terms so far in advance of his free agency (unless at a max level, but Stone likely wouldn’t view that as being certain to have positive trade value).
With so many variables, it’s hard to say at this stage what Stone will conclude. But if desired, it appears that a trade market for the big man’s services will certainly be there — and the recent run of wins by Houston with Wood playing a central role can only help. Thus, with the Rockets still in the early stages of their planned rebuild, it only makes sense for Houston to at least listen to what the possibilities might be.
Whether it makes sense to execute any of them is another matter.
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