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Ever since the BCS system was abolished and replaced with a four-team playoff to decide the national champion starting in 2014, there has been much speculation about the playoff expanding. It’s been deemed an inevitability by many, and expansion gained traction this past offseason with nonconference games being largely eliminated due to COVID-19.
Now, according to a report from Yahoo Sports’ Pete Thamel, it seems expansion is imminent. But it likely will not be to eight teams as many predicted. Rather, it seems the College Football Playoff is likely to expand to 12 teams.
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A working group of four within the CFP committee have been tasked for two years with looking into the logistics of expansion, and that group will report its findings to the committee on July 17 and 18 in Chicago. According to Thamel, expanding the playoff to 12 teams has broad support (or at the very least, openness) from university officials, athletic directors and media executives.
One reason these stakeholders seem to prefer the idea of a 12-team playoff to an eight-team one is concerns about implementing an automatic bid system. As things currently stand, the four CFP teams are chosen on an at-large basis. Any expansion would likely result in conference champions receiving automatic bids, and there are worries that there would be too few at-large spots using an eight-team model.
There is some precedent for using a larger playoff in college football, as the FCS has decided its national champion using a 16-team playoff since 1986. However, expanding to 16 teams doesn’t seem to be on the table (at least for now).
One notable aspect of an expanded playoff model (whether it is 12 teams or even 10 teams, which Thamel suggests as a possibility for a compromise decision) is that it would provide an automatic bid to the best Group of Five team. Under the current system, the best team among those leagues automatically qualifies for a New Year’s Six Bowl, but none have made the CFP as an at-large.
Under a 12-team system, the top four seeds would likely receive a bye, with seeds Nos. 5-12 facing off at the home stadium of the higher seed. The rest of the bowl system would likely remain unchanged, with bowls filling in from there. Although Thamel doesn’t mention it, it’s possible these playoff games could be incorporated into the bowl structure as was done with the CFP semifinals.
One thing certain is this change isn’t coming in the near future. According to Thamel, there will be no change in format until at least after the 2021 and 2022 seasons. But we could have more clarity as discussions progress over the next several weeks.
An expanded College Football Playoff would provide more teams in non-premier leagues with access and guarantee that every Power Five league has at least one representative in the playoff. Further, it would increase the revenue generated for the sport, which understandably has the support of athletic directors and television executives.
Playoff expansion feels inevitable at this point. The only question remaining is when and by how much?
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