Renato Moicano vs. Benoit Saint Denis prediction, pick: Will the ‘God of War’ roll on home turf?

Benoit Saint Denis will fight in front of his home fans in France – and he has yet to disappoint them in Paris in the UFC.

MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC Fight Night 243 main event between [autotag]Renato Moicano[/autotag] and [autotag]Benoit Saint-Denis[/autotag] (ESPN+).

Renato Moicano UFC Fight Night 243 preview

Renato Moicano

Staple info:

  • Record: 19-5-1 MMA, 11-5 UFC
  • Height: 5’11” Age: 35 Weight: 155 lbs. Reach: 72″
  • Last fight: TKO win over Jalin Turner (April 13, 2024)
  • Camp: American Top Team (Florida)
  • Stance/striking style: Orthodox/muay Thai
  • Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ Regional MMA titles
+ 1 KO victory
+ 10 submission wins
+ 4 first-round finishes
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Solid muay Thai technique
^ Hard leg kicks
+ Accurate hooks and uppercuts
^ Coming forward and off the counter
+ Developing wrestling game
^ Strong from bodylock positions
+ Excellent transitional grappler
+ Always looks for back
^ 10 wins by rear-naked choke
+/- 2-1 against UFC-level southpaws

Benoit Saint Denis UFC Fight Night 243 preview

Benoit Saint Denis

Staple info:

  • Record: 13-2 MMA, 5-2 UFC
  • Height: 5’11” Age: 28 Weight: 155 lbs. Reach: 73″
  • Last fight: Knockout loss to Dustin Poirier (March 9, 2024)
  • Camp: CYFIT (France)
  • Stance/striking style: Southpaw/Muay Thai
  • Risk management: Fair

Supplemental info:
+ Judo black belt
+ Regional MMA accolades
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt
+ French national champion in BJJ
+ 4 KO victories
+ 9 submission wins
+ 7 first-round finishes
+ KO Power
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
+ Powerful left kick
^ Variates well between body and head
+ Solid takedown ability
^ Chains attempts well against the fence
+ Excellent transitional grappler
^ Punishing rides, good scrambles and submissions

Renato Moicano vs. Benoit Saint Denis point of interest: Striking with a southpaw

The main event in France features a fun stylistic matchup between two lightweights who operate out of different stances.

Known as the “God of War,” [autotag]Benoit Saint-Denis[/autotag] is a southpaw who slings his left shin with impunity.

https://twitter.com/JackSlackMMA/status/1838662605486932272

Whether Saint-Denis is variating his kicks to the body or the head, he is good about counter-balancing his attacks with hard punches on the follow-up. Saint-Denis has also made more of a concerted effort to prod with body punches in recent outings, which only adds to the southpaw double-attack dynamic that he brings to the table.

That said, Saint-Denis’ borderline reckless aggression can expose some porous defense that leaves the 28-year-old open to counters.

Enter [autotag]Renato Moicano[/autotag].

Despite stepping onto the UFC scene with submissions being his forte, Moicano quickly demonstrated that he was paying proper attention to all parts of his game – including his striking.

Steadily developing a muay Thai arsenal, Moicano can either stalk or stick and move, using hard kicks from both sides. Striking in combination when feeling in stride, the 35-year-old does increasingly better at punching his way in and out of the pocket.

https://twitter.com/fenoxsky/status/1838277021673423123

Whether Moicano is coming forward or countering, his hook, cross and uppercut triggers appear to be deeply rooted, committing to a response each time. When facing southpaws, Moicano will still smartly utilize his lead hand but mainly looks to counter when finding himself in open-stance affairs (which isn’t the worst idea in the world given the potential offerings his opponent could provide).

Renato Moicano vs. Benoit Saint Denis breakdown: Potential grappling threats

Nov 12, 2022; New York, NY, USA; Brad Riddell (red gloves) and Renato Moicano (blue gloves) during UFC 281 at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Jessica Alcheh-USA TODAY Sports

Given that both fighters come from grappling bases, no one should be shocked if either man attempts to take things to the ground this weekend.

An aggressive pressure-grappler at his core, Saint-Denis has little issue when it comes to implementing his game on the opposition. Although Saint-Denis may not have the most elegant setups for his shots, the 28-year-old is a relentless worker once he can corral people up against the fence.

From body locks to chains off of the single-leg, Saint-Denis almost resembles a honey badger in closed quarters. And when Saint-Denis can establish any kind of riding position, he’s quick to get to work with punishing strikes and opportunistic submission holds.

That said, Moicano – a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt – is not exactly a slouch in close. Moicano has also spent a good portion of his childhood practicing judo, which means that he should at least be familiar with some of the offensive and defensive stylings of Saint-Denis.

Since moving up to the UFC’s lightweight division, Moicano has become a much more aggressive grappler. Moicano still shows the level-changing shots that he wielded at featherweight, but the American Top Team product arguably gets a bulk of his work done from the clinch.

https://twitter.com/DanTomMMA/status/1839195829653159978

Favoring the bodylock position, Moicano likes to combo his threats that range from shuck-bys to the back to Polish-style, step-around takedowns that force his opponents to pick their poison.

Once Moicano can establish a dominant position, he quickly demonstrates why he made MMA Junkie’s Top 10 when it comes to rear-naked choke artists in MMA.

A Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt primed to get behind his opposition, Moicano needs very little daylight to get to his preferred kill zone. And once Moicano can establish his presence from the rear, he shows incredibly slick grip deconstructions that smoothly cut through his victim’s defenses like a hot knife going through butter.

Renato Moicano vs. Benoit Saint Denis odds

The oddsmakers and the public are currently favoring the French fighter, listing Saint-Denis -290 and Moicano +215 via FanDuel.

Renato Moicano vs. Benoit Saint Denis prediction, pick

Renato Moicano vs. Benoit Saint Denis, UFC Fight Night 243 (via UFC)

Although I don’t disagree with who is favored, I believe that Moicano is a live underdog in this spot.

Aside from the fact Saint-Denis has still yet to prove himself positively past the second round, the “God of War” will provide Moicano with plenty of counter opportunities due to the sheer nature of his aggression. And despite Saint-Denis having solid wrestle-ups with some confident front-choke defense in tow, the Frenchman is not beyond being taken down due to his proclivity to sometimes surrender underhooks in favor of overhooks.

Still, I can’t help but suspect that this will be an incredibly tough storm for Moicano to weather from both a size and stylistic perspective.

Moicano may technically have a positive record opposite UFC-level southpaws at 2-1, but all three fighters in said sample were able to repeatedly hurt the Brazilian with left-sided strikes, dropping or stopping him in most cases. Couple that with the bodywork that Saint-Denis brings to the table (something that was a crux with my Rafael Fiziev and Rafael dos Anjos picks), and I find myself semi-reluctantly siding with the betting favorite in this spot.

I wouldn’t mind being wrong, but the official pick is Saint-Denis by knockout in Round 1.

Prediction: Saint-Denis inside the distance

Renato Moicano vs. Benoit Saint Denis start time, where to watch

As the main event in Paris, Moicano and Saint Denis are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 5:30 p.m. ET. The entire card streams on ESPN+.

For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC Fight Night 243.