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The No. 11 Alabama Crimson Tide (9-3) and Michigan Wolverines (7-5) meet New Year’s Eve in the ReliaQuest Bowl. Kickoff from Raymond James Stadium in Tampa is scheduled for noon ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s college football odds around the Michigan vs. Alabama odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
Michigan wrapped up its regular season with a hard fought 13-10 victory over the then-No. 2, now-No. 7 Ohio State Buckeyes in Columbus Nov. 30. The Wolverines won outright as 19.5-point road underdogs, beating their rival a fourth consecutive season. The game stayed well below the 41.5-point total. They finished 5-4 in Big Ten play, tying for 7th place.
Michigan’s formula for success this season has been built around a strong running game. The Wolverines were 7-1 when rushing for 115 yards or more, but 0-4 when they failed to reach that mark. Leading the charge was RB Kalel Mullings, who finished 6th in the Big Ten with 948 rushing yards. However, Mullings and RB Donovan Edwards (589 rushing yards) opted out of the bowl game to avoid injury before the NFL Draft. DL Mason Graham, CB Will Johnson and TE Colston Loveland also opted out.
Last season, Michigan snapped a 6-bowl losing streak by defeating Alabama 27-20 in overtime at the Rose Bowl before a dominant 34-13 win over the Washington Huskies in the College Football Playoff National Championship.
Alabama finished its regular season with a strong 28-14 victory over the in-state rival Auburn Tigers, covering as an 11.5-point home favorite with the Under (51.5) cashing. Despite winning 4 of its last 5 games, 3 losses during the regular season kept ‘Bama out of the College Football Playoff.
QB Jalen Milroe was the driving force of Alabama’s offense, throwing for 2,562 yards with 15 TDs and completing 65.9% of his passes. His dual-threat ability made him even more dangerous. He finished 10th in the SEC with 719 rushing yards and added 20 TDs on the ground.
Alabama’s playoff hopes last season ended with the 7-point OT loss to Michigan in the Rose Bowl, a CFP semifinal. Despite that setback, the Crimson Tide have been successful in bowl games, winning 5 of their last 7 appearances.
These 2 teams have squared-off 6 times, 5 of those have been in bowl games. Each team has 3 of those matchups.
– Rankings: US LBM Coaches Poll, conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports
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Alabama vs. Michigan odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of college football odds. Lines last updated Monday at 5:13 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Alabama -650 (bet $650 to win $100) | Michigan +450 (bet $100 to win $450)
- Against the spread (ATS): Alabama -14 (-110) | Michigan +14 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 43.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Alabama vs. Michigan picks and predictions
Prediction
Alabama 31, Michigan 10
Moneyline
PASS.
The Crimson Tide (-650) will handle their business here and make short work of the Wolverines (+450). But the price is way too steep. I’ll take my wager to the spread because one can’t reasonably bet -650 juice.
Against the spread
BET ALABAMA -14 (-110).
Michigan’s real victory came in its regular-season finale against Ohio State — that was the Wolverines Super Bowl. Their lack of urgency for this bowl game shows, as both star RBs and top players opted out.
Meanwhile, Alabama enters with a chip on its shoulder, feeling snubbed from the College Football Playoff committee — even though they had 3 losses. This bowl is their chance to prove the committee wrong and build momentum for next season.
The Crimson Tide’s offense is potent, averaging 35.5 points per game, which ranks 18th in the country, according to Covers.com. Michigan only averaged 22.3 PPG. The Wolverines struggled when held under 115 rushing yards, going 0-4, and replicating their usual ground success will be tough without their top backs.
Alabama’s run defense, which allowed 139.8 yards per game against SEC opponents, will face a Michigan backfield of Benjamin Hall (13 carries this season) and Jordan Marshall (8 carries).
I’ve got Alabama rolling big in this one.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 43.5 (-110).
Alabama has hit the Under in 5 of its last 6 games, and Michigan has gone Under in 2 of its last 3.
Now missing 2 of their top offensive weapons, the Wolverines are in trouble. Their quarterbacks combined for only 10 touchdowns and 12 interceptions all season.
Facing Alabama’s tough defense, which ranks 10th in the country and allows just 17.3 PPG, Michigan’s offense won’t do much. The Under feels like the safe play here.
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