Roughly 21 percent of targets from the Green Bay Packers’ passing game in 2019 will need to be redistributed to others during the 2020 season.
The new allocation should actually provide a notable boost.
Gone are tight end Jimmy Graham and wide receiver Geronimo Allison, who combined to handle 115 targets in 2019, or about 21.2 percent of the Packers’ total targets over the course of the regular season. Both Graham (third) and Allison (fifth) were in the top five of targeted players for the Packers last season.
If the Packers throw the football at the same rate in 2020, a significant chunk of the passing game will need to be transferred from Graham and Allison to others, but this redistribution could be a positive thing.
Together, Graham and Allison caught 72 of 115 targets (62.6 percent) for 734 yards (6.4 per attempt) and five touchdowns in 2019.
Graham, for all his history as a game-changing receiver at tight end, provided little to no impact for the Packers in the passing game. According to Pro Football Focus, Graham averaged 1.11 yards per route run in 2019, ranking 31st out of 44 qualifying tight ends. He was targeted 10 times on passes traveling over 20 yards in the air but caught just two. His overall receiving grade ranked 39th at the position.
Graham did have a terrific performance in the NFC Divisional Round, helping the Packers beat the visiting Seattle Seahawks with a handful of clutch catches. But he didn’t have a touchdown catch over the final 11 games of the season and was, for most of the year, devoid of impact as a down-the-field receiver. The majority of his impact – and a big chunk of his receiving yards – came as a checkdown receiver in the flats after staying in to pass protect. He also wasn’t a factor as a blocker, severely hampering Matt LaFleur’s deceptive desires pre-snap.
Now 33, and with a litany of previous lower-body injuries, Graham probably runs in the 4.8-second range in the 40-yard dash. Released by the Packers two years in his bust of a three-year deal, he signed with the Chicago Bears in free agency.
Graham’s snaps and targets are likely waiting for second-year tight end Jace Sternberger, who is much faster, a more willing blocker and – at this stage in their respective careers – almost certainly a more dangerous receiver. Young tight ends are never guaranteed, and the position could backtrack in 2020 if Sternberger isn’t ready to play a bigger role, but there’s a strong chance the 2018 third-round pick is going to provide the Packers offense with a true seam-stretching player capable of creating more plays down the field. There’s an equally good chance Sternberger will be a better blocker and a more versatile player in LaFleur’s scheme, too.
At receiver, the departure of Allison will almost certainly be an addition by subtraction situation for the Packers.
Among 127 players with at least 50 targets last season, Allison ranked 122nd in yards per target at 5.22. Among 81 qualifying wide receivers, Allison ranked 80th in DVOA. He averaged 8.4 yards per catch, dropped five passes and lost two fumbles.
Overall, Allison represented one of the worst pass-catching targets in the NFL last season. He lacks a defining trait, with average speed and quickness and little to no ability after the catch. Teams smothered his routes from the slot and chopped him down for short gains on quick throws. Allison did the rest, dropping passes and fumbling the ball away in key situations.
The redistribution of Allison’s 55 targets could provide the biggest boost to the Packers’ passing game.
It’s unclear who will be the biggest beneficiary of Allison leaving for Detroit, but newcomer Devin Funchess will need targets, Allen Lazard is positioning himself for a bigger role, Marquez Valdes-Scantling will be healthy and the Packers like what they have in Equanimeous St. Brown and Reggie Begelton, who could both compete for slot snaps.
The Packers aren’t strong behind Davante Adams at receiver, but that group will have to try very hard to accomplish the level of sheer inefficiency Allison produced in 2019.
Even a slight increase in production and efficiency from the receiver and tight end groups could make the difference for a passing game that lacked consistency for much of LaFleur’s first season as the playcaller.
With Graham and Allison playing elsewhere, the Packers will have to find a new home for roughly one-fifth of the total targets from last season’s passing game. Often, reallocating targets can be difficult for an offense. For the Packers, the redistribution could provide a boost, with 115 targets leaving two inefficient, impactless players and hopefully landing in better hands in 2020.
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