I’m actually really sorry to be writing this column, for a number of reasons.
One, because nobody likes a smartass saying “I told you” and quoting themselves, but I’m going to be doing exactly that.
Two, because being right on this occasion means a driver having gone through an extremely challenging spell, and not yet having found their way out the other side of it.
And three, because another driver could well be about to face the same fate. All because of Red Bull’s frankly awful decision-making in 2024.
The “I told you” part relates to the column I wrote back in December, when it became clear that Sergio Perez was being dropped by Red Bull. That was the right move, because Perez had been there for a long time, was the experienced driver who was meant to perform, and the environment just called for a fresh start for both driver and team. There was no light at the end of the tunnel.
What was the wrong move, was selecting Liam Lawson in his place. That’s not being said with hindsight – here’s an excerpt from that column:
“The common denominator is not a single driver, it’s that seat. And that’s where Red Bull’s next move seems all the more wrong … Red Bull is going to follow its old approach of fast-tracking a driver into a position where they are more likely to fail than succeed.
“That’s not a slight on Liam Lawson’s abilities, but on the environment he’s going into based on the experiences of all the drivers before him.”
If you didn’t see it at the time, you can read the full column here to see how I felt Yuki Tsunoda was the right choice to replace Perez for multiple reasons, with one of the main ones being what has happened to many Red Bull young talents in the past.
Christian Horner insisted the decision to promote Lawson was based on his potential, and that he was on a trajectory that would allow him to improve over time. Clearly two races were enough for Red Bull to decide that improvement was too far into the distance, despite Horner’s words over the winter.
Something else Horner said after giving Lawson the seat was, “I think one of the things we’ll be looking to protect Liam from is expectation.” But Red Bull expected far more from him at the opening two rounds of the season. Red Bull is entitled to feel that there was a minimum level that Lawson thus far failed to reach – P20 in each qualifying session in China is as bad as it gets – but the team needs to admit it got it wrong.
Lawson had started just 11 races when he was promoted. He had, and has, so much still to learn in Formula 1, and wasn’t being given the environment in which to do it. For it to go so badly over the opening two race weekends only proves that Red Bull did not have enough data and information from that initial sample set, despite claims to the contrary, and it only has itself to blame.
If you’re a young driver looking at your future career path, then while Red Bull has always appeared brutal, there was also the appeal of having so much of your career funded, and knowing that if you did a good job you would get an opportunity. But with each increasingly poor handling of the seat alongside Max Verstappen, you are likely to push Red Bull further and further down your wishlist and want to sign with other teams.
And if you’re one of the Red Bull owners – either Chalerm Yoovidhya or Mark Mateschitz – surely the time has come to ask who truly makes these decisions, how, and why?
Should the blame lie at Horner’s door? Or Helmut Marko’s, as the de facto head of the Red Bull junior driver program? Over the past 18 months the pair have not been consistently on the same page and often have different views on drivers, which in itself isn’t necessarily a bad thing, but it clearly is not a dynamic that is working. And perhaps the fact that both have such strong opinions clouds the ability to get the decision-making right.
Horner’s quotes on the move say the choice was made “collectively”, spreading the share of the blame among a nondescript group. One thing that does is allow poor choices to be made without accountability – it seems only the drivers are being held accountable.
You might think the call to swap Tsunoda and Lawson so quickly into this year is a positive outcome as it delivers the driver line-ups that seemed so much more sensible in December. But it comes at the cost of both drivers.
It’s true Lawson is going back into an environment that he performed well in last year, but he now has to rebuild his confidence after such a painful handling. Just two weeks ago he was preparing for his debut with the team at the closest thing he has to a home race, and he has already been deemed not good enough – at least, not right now.
Tsunoda, meanwhile, has to jump into a clearly problematic car at extremely short notice, and try to perform better than the two drivers who went before him. Oh, and he has to do that at a track that will heavily punish the tiniest mistake, all under the immense scrutiny of his home crowd. No pre-season testing, no full winter of preparation with the Red Bull engineering team, nothing.
The fact that Tsunoda’s greater experience is now being cited as one of the key reasons for the switch also doesn’t hold much water, given that experience wasn’t deemed important enough two races ago. It’s not as if Red Bull had enjoyed a smooth run up to the end of last season, so the need for experience this year could certainly have been predicted.
While the Japanese driver might perform better than Lawson had managed to in the opening two rounds, history suggests he’s still unlikely to be particularly close to Verstappen, and history also suggests Red Bull’s management will blame the driver. Again.
The time has come for the team’s leadership to take responsibility for the failings of its second car and stop shifting the blame. Red Bull needs to find a management structure that is all on the same page and working collaboratively, and will front up when it gets things wrong.
No other team has seen such consistently different performance levels between its two sides of the garage than Red Bull over the past five years, and while Verstappen might be performing miracles, last year he showed his frustration as expectations started to grow that he would keep papering over the cracks, as if it was simple.
Of course the Dutchman is such a talent that you have to make him your priority, but working out how to create an environment that another driver can also be competitive in will benefit Verstappen, too. Right now he’s carrying the team.
Red Bull’s slide from dominant force in 2023 to arguably the fourth-fastest team 18 months later has been quite remarkable. And it certainly isn’t all the second driver’s fault.
Before long, the first driver might tire of the blame game, too.