As the NFL playoffs have kicked off this week, one of the top storylines has been the Baltimore Ravens’ defense going up against Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry. It’s figured to be one of the main keys of this week’s wild-card matchup, with analysts and even some fans wondering if Baltimore has what it takes to stop the bruising Henry from once again dominating the game.
But analysts and fans are missing one thing . . . The Ravens have already stopped Henry earlier this season. And they did it without defensive linemen Brandon Williams and Calais Campbell. This time around, both players should be suited up and it’ll make all the difference in the world.
Let’s take a quick look back to that Week 11 tilt. If you look at just the box score, it’s easy to see why people think Henry dominated that game. He finished with 133 rushing yards and a touchdown on 28 carries — good for a 4.8 yards-per-carry average. But when you look a little closer, the bulk of those yards and his lone touchdown came late in the game and in overtime, while he was completely stifled for three quarters.
Let’s actually break down Henry’s yards and attempts by quarter to see just how impressive Baltimore’s defense was in that game.
| Quarter | Attempts | Yards | Average | TDs |
| 1st | 6 | 22 | 3.67 YPC | 0 |
| 2nd | 7 | 15 | 2.14 YPC | 0 |
| 3rd | 5 | 7 | 1.4 YPC | 0 |
| 4th | 7 | 52 | 7.43 YPC | 0 |
| Overtime | 3 | 37 | 12.33 YPC | 1 |
As you can see, it wasn’t until the fourth quarter where Henry actually found any rushing room. And even then, it was a 24-yard run in the fourth quarter and a 29-yard run in overtime that got him the bulk of his yards on the day. While every play counts, taking out those two runs paints quite a different picture. Without them, Henry only put up 80 rushing yards and five first downs on 26 carries — a pedestrian 3.08 yards-per-carry average.
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As mentioned earlier, both Campbell and Williams were out of that game, putting more pressure on the rest of the defense to focus on containing Henry, allowing quarterback Ryan Tannehill to see less pressure and more open throwing lanes accordingly. More importantly, it meant the defensive line had little depth to rotate around, making the starters gassed by the fourth quarter. With both players back in the lineup this week and others like Jihad Ward and Justin Madubuike playing significantly better football now, there’s reason for optimism in this rematch.
The Ravens had actually owned a decent lead at one point of the game, going 21-10 shortly after halftime. But offensive inconsistencies and an interception allowed Tennessee to turn things around, eventually seeing the Titans take the lead back late in the fourth quarter. However, Baltimore’s offense has played far better football over the last five weeks and while it’s a stretch to say they’ve looked unstoppable, there is a night-and-day difference between the unit in Week 11 to now.
They’ve averaged 430 offensive-yards-per-game while putting up 37.2 points-per-game over the last five weeks, even with starters sitting for stretches due to blowout wins and a COVID-19 outbreak. The rushing attack has been leaps and bounds better than what we saw earlier in the season as the offense has moved away from Mark Ingram as the starting running back and instead are splitting the job between J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards. Quarterback Lamar Jackson has been playing smarter and more efficient football as well, connecting on some deep passes last week against the Cincinnati Bengals.
Don’t get it twisted, slowing Henry down is a tough task no matter how good the defense. But the Ravens’ defense showed they can do it even when down their top two run-stuffing players. With the offense now in a far better position to finish the game on their own and the defense nearly back to full healthy, Baltimore has what it takes to pick up that important first playoff win.
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