Matthew Judon – Free agency value:
Some teams may be wary of the fact that it took until the final year of his contract to put it all together. But as we’ve seen too often in the NFL, there are plenty of teams willing to bet on potential, especially when shown some flashes of what could be.
I think the most obvious comparison is to Smith’s contract last season with Green Bay. Smith got a four-year, $66 million deal from the Packers, including $20 million guaranteed, according to Over The Cap.
When comparing Smith and Judon’s fourth years, Judon has the edge in tackles, sacks, quarterback hits, forced fumbles and tackles-for-loss. Given Smith’s ascension into one of the best pass rushers in the league, there are undoubtedly some teams that are going to bet Judon has a similar jump up in his fifth year. With the salary cap expected to grow quite a lot once again, it’s difficult seeing Judon not topping Smith’s deal this offseason.
A four-year, $68 million deal with $22 million guaranteed seems to be about right given Judon’s production, age and the importance the league puts on the position in today’s pass-happy game.