We’re only a week away from the 2020 NFL Draft and I still don’t know how I feel about this year’s class of quarterbacks. Well, that’s not entirely true. I don’t think it’s a good one but I feel like I could be talked into each and every prospect I’ve rated here. But I could be convinced just as easily that, other than the top two guys, none of them will ever amount to anything.
I don’t know if the prospect tiers have ever been clearer. There are the guys that are good at playing quarterback (Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa), then there are the “potential” guys who aren’t very good at football (Justin Herbert and Jordan Love). The rest of the group is made up of guys who might be able to play football but lack the physical tools (like Jake Fromm), or have the tools but not the processing and poised needed for the position (like Jacob Eason.)
This feels like one of those quarterback classes where we get everything wrong, but I won’t let that stop me from ranking all of the prospects. Let’s do it. We’ll start with at the top…
So maybe Joe Burrow isn’t the slam dunk prospect many people believe he is, but I have no doubt in my mind that he’ll be, at the very least, a good NFL starter. I just don’t see how a quarterback who is accurate, poised in the pocket and has a firm grasp on what defenses are throwing at him would fail. Well, playing for the Bengals might be one way, but even they can’t screw this up. So why am I not higher on Burrow as a prospect? I covered that in-depth here, but the TL;DR: Burrow’s arm isn’t special and our perception of him as a prospect is based on a year of unsustainable production.
Comparisons
Ceiling: Matt Ryan
Floor: Andy Dalton
CLICK HERE FOR BURROW’S EXTENDED SCOUTING REPORT
Tua Tagovailoa looks the part. No, not in the traditional sense, where every quarterback is tall and white and possesses a big arm. But actually watch Tua operate Alabama’s offense and he just looks like a professional quarterback. He gets through his reads quickly and delivers the ball with accuracy. The biggest concern — outside of the hip injury that ended his college career, of course — is his ability to make big-time throws. It’s not just an arm strength issue, either. Tua is overly conservative and will have to change his mentality if he’s going to be more than a mid-tier quarterback at the next level.
Comparisons
Ceiling: Dak Prescott
Floor: Post-injury Teddy Bridgewater
CLICK HERE FOR TUA’S EXTENDED SCOUTING REPORT
Jordan Love’s placement on this list says more about this quarterback class than it says about him. He’s an interesting prospect, which is what you say about guys with good tools who aren’t actually good at football. The difference between Love and the next guy on this list is that there are times when the good football player that is buried down deep in Love sneaks out. Most of the time, Love is a reckless decision-maker who struggles to hit even the most routine throws. But then he throws a dime on the run or goes through his progression in the pocket and you can imagine him doing that on a regular basis in the NFL. I just wouldn’t want to be the GM that bets on it happening.
Comparisons
Ceiling: Jay Cutler
Floor: Brett Hundley
CLICK HERE FOR LOVE’S EXTENDED SCOUTING REPORT
*John Elway has entered the chat*
Look, I’m not going to go as fas as saying Justin Herbert is a bad football player, but I’ll say this: Right now, he’s a bad quarterback. Sure, he’s big and strong and can throw the ball over them mountains, but when it comes to all of the other areas where good NFL starters typically excel, he is aggressively not good. If everything goes right, and Herbert’s first read is open, he looks like a star. You can say that about a lot of quarterbacks, though. It’s when Herbert has to move onto his next read where things breakdown — at least mentally. But the Oregon product checks all of the boxes for your run-of-the-mill NFL exec, so he’ll go in the first round and the splash plays will inspire hope in his new fanbase but will ultimately lead to nowhere.
Comparisons
Ceiling: Josh Allen
Floor: Paxton Lynch
CLICK HERE FOR HERBERT’S EXTENDED SCOUTING REPORT
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The NFL will be more fun if Anthony Gordon makes it. Mix some Gardner Minshew with some Ryan Fitzpatrick and add a dash of Jameis Winston and you have Gordon. He’s a reckless decision-maker, but he has a good feel for the position, which is more than you can say for half of the quarterbacks in this class. And while his arm isn’t the strongest, it’s flexible and allows him to make wild throws from ridiculous arm angles. Gordon’s play-making mentality will get him into trouble (often) but when everything’s clicking, he looks like a first-round pick. If he can just turn the Jameis down from a 10 to a 7, Gordon will find himself starting in the NFL — maybe sooner rather than later. If that happens, we all win.
Comparisons
Ceiling: Fitzmagic
Floor: Fitztragic
CLICK HERE FOR GORDON’S EXTENDED SCOUTING REPORT
This is the ranking I’m most worried about getting @FreezingColdTakes’d about. I can envision Jalen Hurts developing into a reliable — and possibly good — NFL starter, but I don’t know if any team will have the patience to give him a chance. Hurts is the one top quarterback prospect in this draft who will make a real difference as a runner and he showed just enough progress as a passer during his lone season in Norman to garner consideration as an early Day 3 pick. Downfield accuracy is the biggest problem. Hurts has shown signs of being able to navigate the pocket and make reads downfield, but that’s more the exception than the rule. Hurts is who the Lamar Jackson skeptics thought the NFL MVP would be. The difference? Jackson was a far better passer and a more explosive runner. And unlike other dual threats who have made it in the NFL, Hurts doesn’t have a special arm.
Comparisons
Ceiling: What Sean Payton thinks Taysom Hill is
Floor: What everybody else thinks Taysom Hill is
CLICK HERE FOR HURTS’ EXTENDED SCOUTING REPORT
I’m going to try my best to say only nice things about Jacob Eason. Here we go: Eason is tall and his arm is very strong. He can fit the ball into windows that very few QBs would even dare to try. And, um … oh, here’s a good one: Eason can get through a progression in a timely manner. If his first read isn’t open, this dude will — are you sitting down? — look to his second read. Crazy, I know. Now, is he accurate enough to get the ball to his target consistently? No. Is he willing to hang in the pocket and go through his reads when there are bodies around him? LOL. Not a chance. But that arm. It will be enough to convince some team to waste a Day 2 pick on him, but it’s unlikely that any team will ever see him as a viable answer at quarterback. The good news: NFL backup is a pretty sweet gig. (I guess I failed at only saying nice things.)
Comparisons
Ceiling: Carson Palmer (not going to happen)
Floor: Zach Mettenberger (probably going to happen)
CLICK HERE FOR EASON’S EXTENDED SCOUTING REPORT
If the sport of football required no physical ability, Jake Fromm would be at the top of this list. He’s smart as hell, understands defenses and has no problem finding open receivers. It’s getting the ball to those receivers that gives Fromm the most problems. Especially when the receivers are, like, all the way over there. In between the numbers, the Georgia product is an accurate thrower, and he’s mastered the art of the back-shoulder fade; but if a throw requires any kind of arm talent, Fromm is going to struggle. And don’t even think about asking him to make a play out of structure. So maybe Fromm isn’t going to light the NFL on fire as a quarterback, but he’ll make a fine offensive coordinator one day.
Comparisons
Ceiling: Cody Kessler
Floor: Kellen Moore
CLICK HERE FOR FROMM’S EXTENDED SCOUTING REPORT
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