16. Cleveland Browns
Points Per Game: 20.9 (22nd out of 32)
Yards Per Game: 340.9 (22nd out of 32)
Yards Per Play: 5.6 (14th out of 32)
On paper, this could be one of the better offenses in the league by the end of the season. The Cleveland Browns were active in the offseason, acquiring tight end Austin Hooper, one of the best players available at his position, and adding Jack Conklin to shore up the right tackle spot. Then in the first round of the draft they added Jedrick Wills Jr., a stout tackle from Alabama and potentially the bookend across from Conklin. They also added Kevin Stefanski as their new head coach, and it is expected he will install an offense similar to what the Minnesota Vikings used last season, a system that builds off the outside zone running game to create options for the quarterback off of play-action and boot concepts.
Oh and they still have talent coming back, from Odell Beckham Jr. to Jarvis Landry to an intriguing pair of running backs in Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt.
What remains to be seen is whether Baker Mayfield lives up to the expectations. This should be an offense that suits him and what he does best, creating outside of the pocket and throwing on the move, but there are concerns. The biggest was highlighted recently in this piece from Doug Farrar: From a clean pocket, Mayfield was the worst quarterback in the league. When he wasn’t harassed, Mayfield still threw a league-high 16 interceptions on 394 attempts, and a league-worst 84.0 quarterback rating.
Until that improves, this offense might not reach its full potential.
15. Los Angeles Rams
Points Per Game: 24.6 (11th out of 32)
Yards Per Game: 374.9 (7th out of 32)
Yards Per Play: 5.7 (11th out of 32)
After reaching Super Bowl LIII two seasons ago, the Los Angeles Rams struggled in 2019, coming to a 9-7 record and finishing third in the NFC West, missing out on the playoffs. The shine seemed to come off Jared Goff a bit, as the young passer placed just 13th in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt.
Last year seemed to be about the league catching up to the Rams’ offense, building on what teams like the Chicago Bears, Philadelphia Eagles and of course the New England Patriots did to them at the tail end of the 2018-2019 season and into the Super Bowl. The recipe McVay created, using 11 personnel and pre-snap motion to create opportunities in the running game and off of play-action, seemed to fade as teams like those listed started ignoring the presnap eye candy and used quarters coverage shells to take away the options for Goff downfield. How McVay responds in this season ahead will tell the story of this offense in 2020.
14. Indianapolis Colts
Points Per Game: 22.6 (17th out of 32)
Yards Per Game: 327.4 (25th out of 32)
Yards Per Play: 5.2 (24th out of 32)
It is now the Philip Rivers show in Indianapolis. After the Colts’ offense struggled a season ago under Jacoby Brissett – and in the wake of the sudden retirement from Andrew Luck – the veteran passer moves to the Heartland to take over Frank Reich’s offense. The move to a West Coast system might work wonders for Rivers, who had an NFL passer rating of just 59.1 on downfield throws last season, placing him 22nd in the league among qualified passers.
Beyond the quarterback position, the Colts addressed the wide receiver room with their first pick in the draft, selecting Michael Pittman Jr. out of USC. He might make for a solid running mate for T.Y. Hilton. The team also added running back Jonathan Taylor from Wisconsin, who has a sprinter’s background and showed last season with the Badgers that he can be a factor in the passing game as well. Putting these pieces together, the Colts offense should take a step forward from last season.
13. Philadelphia Eagles
Points Per Game: 24.1 (12th out of 32)
Yards Per Game: 360.8 (14th out of 32)
Yards Per Play: 5.2 (21st out of 32)
Change might be in the air in Philadelphia. No, I’m not referring to a switch at the quarterback position – no matter how much the Philadelphia media market might want to drive such a discussion – but in offensive philosophy. Doug Pederson’s West Coast offense might look a little different in 2019. The team is indicating a move towards a more downfield approach is in the works, and their moves this offseason reflect that notion. Jalen Reagor, the TCU wideout, is a downfield threat with his ability on double-moves. They also added Marquise Goodwin, John Hightower and Quez Watkins, vertical game specialists. Both Pederson and general manager Howie Roseman have talked about being more aggressive, and how a downfield passing game fits Carson Wentz.
(It also fits Jalen Hurts…but I digress.)
But this new-look Eagles offense still has players like Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson on the roster, and as such, could really put up the points if everything clicks.
12. Minnesota Vikings
Points Per Game: 25.4 (9th out of 32)
Yards Per Game: 353.5 (16th out of 32)
Yards Per Play: 5.8 (10th out of 32)
Kirk Cousins, perhaps quietly, had a very efficient season in 2019. His Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt of 7.73 placed him seventh in the league, and his Completion Percentage Above Expectation, as charted by NFL’s Next Gen Stats, was +5.5, behind only Ryan Tannehill and Drew Brees.
But there are two reasons to be skeptical about Cousins and the Vikings reaching that same level of success in 2020. First, the loss of Stefon Diggs to the Buffalo Bills. Diggs was one of the league’s best downfield receivers last year, and made a great pair with Adam Thielen. Second, the loss of Kevin Stefanski. His offensive system seemed to bring out the best in Cousins.
Reasons for optimism are present, however. Justin Jefferson, the LSU wide receiver the Vikings added in the first round, could be a very dangerous weapon on those over routes using boot action, something Cousins was very effective at running a season ago. And speaking of the scheme, in Stefanski’s place is Gary Kubiak, a veteran offensive coordinator who you might consider the grandfather of those route designs. Kubiak’s offensive system might be very familiar ground to tread for Cousins.
11. Green Bay Packers
Points Per Game: 23.5 (15th out of 32)
Yards Per Game: 345,5 (18th out of 32)
Yards Per Play: 5.4 (18th out of 32)
Much has been made over the past few weeks about the selection of Jordan Love in the first round by the Green Bay Packers. Looking to the future at the quarterback position – when Aaron Rodgers is still on the roster and you were a game away from the Super Bowl last year – is a bit of a head-scratcher. But the Packers looked to the present with their next two picks, selecting running back A.J. Dillon and tight end/H-Back Josh Deguara on Day Two.
What this might portend is a move to a more San Francisco 49ers type of offense, built around play-action, throwing out of heavy personnel packages and keeping the defense off-balance. Head coach Matt LaFleur intimated as much when discussing the Deguara, outlining how he wants to use him in a way similar to how Kyle Shanahan uses Kyle Juszczyk. How that plays out remains to be seen. But with Rodgers still under center and Davante Adams working on the outside, such an offense could come together for the Packers to make another run.
10. Tennessee Titans
Points Per Game: 25.1 (10th out of 32)
Yards Per Game: 362.8 (12th out of 32)
Yards Per Play: 6.1 (T-3rd out of 32)
Last season the Tennessee Titans made a quarterback switch, replacing Marcus Mariota with Ryan Tannehill, and turned around their offense. Riding the right arm of Tannehill and the legs of Derrick Henry the Titans pulled off successive upsets in the playoffs, knocking off the defending Super Bowl Champion New England Patriots on Wild Card Weekend, and then the top-seeded Baltimore Ravens during the Divisional Round.
Tennessee is getting the gang back together for 2020, having signed Tannehill to a long-term deal and using the franchise tag on Henry. As the numbers indicate, this was a good-to-great offense a year ago, and that yards per play number certainly jumps off the page. Only the Dallas Cowboys and the Kansas City Chiefs were better at that number, and the Titans tied with the Ravens. But will the formula from a year ago achieve the same level of success? If Tannehill can match his performance from a season ago, where he led the league in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt, they just might.
9. Arizona Cardinals
Points Per Game: 22.6 (16th out of 32)
Yards Per Game: 341.7 (22nd out of 32)
Yards Per Play: 5.5 (16th out of 32)
If you are going to take a wild swing on an offense vastly improving from 2019 to 2020, the Arizona Cardinals are the team to take a swing on. Kyler Murray, in his rookie season, had his struggles but there were more than enough flashes to believe that he can be the quarterback the Cardinals hoped he would become when they made him the first overall selection. In addition, the system installed under Kliff Kingsbury, relying heavily on 10 offensive personnel, created opportunities for receivers like Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk, but also soem favorable boxes to run against for Kenyan Drake.
Now, they have added DeAndre Hopkins, one of the game’s truly elite receivers, to the fold. Meaning that the Cardinals could roll out a 10 personnel package with Fitzgerald, Kirk, Hopkins and KeeSean Johnson or Andy Isabella at the wide receiver spots and Drake in the backfield. That is a package that will truly stress defenses. When you add to that how spread out the field will be – and what Murray can then do with his legs – this is going to be a tough offense to defend.