23. Buffalo Bills
Points Per Game: 19.6 (24th out of 32)
Yards Per Game: 330.2 (24th out of 32)
Yards Per Play: 5.2 (23rd out of 32)
As with many other offenses on this list, the pieces are in place for success. But there is a question mark. In the case of the Buffalo Bills, it is at the quarterback position. Allen has been better than expected and his combination of athleticism and arm strength has eased his transition, and he is coming off a season that ended in the playoffs. But there are still questions around whether he can be effective enough in the downfield passing game for this offense to truly take flight.
That is a bit of an odd statement, given where Allen was coming out of college. Given his arm strength it seemed Allen would be deadly throwing downfield. Instead, he has struggled in that part of the game while becoming a more effective passer in the 10-19 yard range. Granted, the bulk of throws for most NFL offenses come in the short- and intermediate-areas of the field, but last year 14.8% of Allen’s throws were 20 yards or more downfield. Only five other passers attempted a higher percentage of their throws in the vertical passing game.
Help has arrived in the form of Stefon Diggs, who was one of the league’s most dangerous downfield targets last season. If Allen can just be a league average downfield passer – he ranked 33rd of 35 qualified passers in Adjusted Completion Percentage on his downfield throws in 2019 – this offense could be dangerous.
22. Denver Broncos
Points Per Game: 17.6 (28th out of 32)
Yards Per Game: 298.6 (28th out of 32)
Yards Per Play: 5.0 (26th out of 32)
The past few seasons have seen some second-year quarterbacks take huge leaps forward. Jared Goff transformed from a certain bust to a playoff quarterback in his second season. Lamar Jackson last year went from a question mark to a league MVP.
If you want to bet on a quarterback having a similar year two leap, Drew Lock could be a smart play. Lock showed promise when he earned the starting job midway through the 2019 campaign, and look at what John Elway has done for him this offseason. The Broncos added wide receiver Jerry Jeudy in the first round – viewed by some as the top receiver in the draft – and then added another wideout, K.J. Hamler, in the second round. With the acquisition of Melvin Gordon during the offseason as well, the Broncos could be looking at an 11 personnel package of Jeudry, Hamler and Courtland Sutton at WR, Noah Fant at TE and Phillip Lindsay/Gordon at RB.
Making that year two leap certainly achievable for Lock.
21. Las Vegas Raiders
Points Per Game: 19.6 (23rd out of 32)
Yards Per Game: 363.7 (11th out of 32)
Yards Per Play: 5.8 (9th out of 32)
The Oakland Raiders’ offense showed serious promise in 2019, particularly during a three-game stretch that saw their record improve to 6-4, putting them into playoff contention. But a four-game losing streak all but destroyed postseason hopes.
However, the Raiders took advantage of two first-round picks and added to both side of the football, selecting cornerback Damon Arnette at the 19th spot and adding speedy wide receiver Henry Ruggs III with their pick at 12 overall. Ruggs might be a perfect fit for Jon Gruden’s offense, given what he can do after the catch, and he has the ability to turn the short throws Derek Carr is known to make into huge plays.
Again, the questions about the offense might come down to the quarterback. Carr put up some solid numbers, such as a 70.4% completion percentage and an NFL passer rating of 100.8, and his Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt of 7.25 placed him ninth in the league. With Ruggs in place, a slight improvement on those numbers is very possible, making a leap up rankings like these possible as well.
20. Carolina Panthers
Points Per Game: 21.3 (20th out of 32)
Yards Per Game: 341.8 (19th out of 32)
Yards Per Play: 5.1 (25th out of 32)
The Carolina Panthers’ offense will rise or fall in 2020 largely based on two new faces: Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater and offensive coordinator Joe Brady. Brady, who joins the organization after a run to a National Championship as LSU’s passing game coordinator, is expected to install a modern West Coast offense that mirrors what the New Orleans Saints run, but with more quarterback-friendly components and run/pass elements. Perhaps a perfect fit for the talent on the roster, such as running back Christian McCaffrey.
But the triggerman for that offense is another new face, in Bridgewater. The veteran passer should be ready to run this system, given his time in New Orleans and with Brady, but he is years removed from being a full-time starter. The potential is there for this to work, but potential does not equal results.
19. Pittsburgh Steelers
Points Per Game: 18.1 (27th out of 32)
Yards Per Game: 276.8 (30th out of 32)
Yards Per Play: 4.7 (31st out of 32)
The Pittsburgh Steelers struggled mightily on the offensive side of the football in 2019, but those numbers have to be taken with a grain of salt. Ben Roethlisberger was put on the shelf for the season after Week 1 with an elbow injury, and the team turned to Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges at the quarterback position in his place. Even working through their second- and third-options at QB, the team still fought for a playoff position into the final weeks.
Roethlisberger is back throwing and looks healthy for the upcoming season, and his return would immediately jumpstart this offense. The young receiving corps, including JuJu Smith-Schuster, Diontae Johnson, James Washington and second-rounder Chase Claypool could put pressure on opposing secondaries, and the acquisition of Eric Ebron gives Roethlisberger another weapon at TE. Provided the veteran QB stays healthy, this offense could perform at a high level.
18. Detroit Lions
Points Per Game: 21.3 (18th out of 32)
Yards Per Game: 346.8 (17th out of 32)
Yards Per Play: 5.4 (18th out of 32)
Similar to the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Detroit Lions struggled on the offensive side of the football once they lost their leader. Through the first half the season the Lions hovered around .500 but their offense was not a huge problem. But then Matthew Stafford was lost for the year and the team turned to Jeff Driskel and David Blough to replace him, and the offense scored more than 27 points in just one of their final eight games, a Week 11 loss to the Dallas Cowboys.
Stafford is expected to be healthy for the year ahead, but the Lions’ offense still has questions up front. Can Halapoulivaati Vaitai be this team’s right tackle? Who fills the spot at right guard, Oday Aboushi or rookie Jonah Jackson? If Stafford can stay healthy, the team has weapons, including Kenny Golladay and second-round pick D’Andre Swift, who can be an asset in the passing game. Fifth-round pick Quintez Cephus is also a player to watch at the WR spot. If they get a full season from Stafford, this offense could be much improved over 2019.
17. Houston Texans
Points Per Game: 23.6 (14th out of 32)
Yards Per Game: 362 (13th out of 32)
Yards Per Play: 5.7 (13th out of 32)
If this were purely a ranking of quarterbacks, the Houston Texans would check in much higher up this list. But Deshaun Watson is just one man. After making it to the playoffs last season, the Texans traded away perhaps their most dangerous offensive weapon in DeAndre Hopkins in a move that still has people scratching their heads. Brandin Cooks and Randall Cobb are nice pieces, but Hopkins is a big loss. Furthermore, the Texans lacked a first round pick, due to the Laremy Tunsil trade from a season ago, and addressed their defense with three of their first four selections. In all, hard to think this offense did not take a step back this offseason.