Welcome to yet another ranking of the top NFL free agents available this offseason. This one is probably a bit different from the others you have read, as it’s not based entirely on the skill of the players. The expected contract values (we’ve used OverTheCap.com‘s projections, via Pro Football Focus, to figure those out) are a big factor.
In a league with a hard salary cap, finding good value is nearly as important as finding talented players. I’ll use an example from last offseason: Trey Flowers was seen as a better player than Justin Houston, but the former cost Detroit $90 million ($56 million guaranteed) while Indianapolis spent $24 million ($18.5 million guaranteed) on the latter. That’s a big reason why we had Houston ranked as the third-best free agent available in last year’s version of these rankings, while Flowers didn’t crack our top-20. And guess what? Houston ended up having the better season.
So that’s how these rankings were put together. With that out of the way, let’s rank some free agents…
The 25 best values available
1. Dak Prescott, QB (age: 26)
Over the Cap projection: 5 years, $165 million
If Jerry Jones lets Prescott get to free agency, it will be the biggest mistake of his time as Cowboys owner. The payout will be monstrous, but Dak is a quarterback with few weaknesses who is capable of carrying a franchise for the next decade. It’s hard to overpay for a guy like that.
2. Philip Rivers, QB (age: 38)
Over the Cap projection: 2 years, $58 million
The perception of what Rivers is as this point of his career is way off. Sure, he basically has no arm strength left, but he’s still one of the more accurate quarterbacks in the league and can still make plays down the field — provided they are not too far downfield.
I have him ahead of Brady on this list for two reasons: (1) He’s more accurate than the six-time Super Bowl champ, and (2) he’ll cost his new team a lot less money than Brady will.
3. Tom Brady, QB (age: 42)
Over the Cap projection: 2 years, $60 million
Brady still has plenty of ability, but he’s not as precise as he once was, and his age is really starting to show up on film. One area where he’s clearly declined: Throwing on the move. Not too long ago, Brady was one of the league’s best quarterbacks at navigating the pocket and making throws with bodies around him. That combined with his precision allowed him to elevate his supporting cast. I don’t know if that’s the case anymore but he’s going to command that type of money.
4. A.J. Green, WR (age: 31)
Over the Cap projection: 3 years, $50 million
The last time we saw Green, he was still playing at an elite level. Of course, that was a season and a significant injury ago, but Green got word from Dr. Robert Anderson that the ankle injury that kept him out all of last year should have no lingering effect on his career. When healthy, Green is a true No. 1 receiver who will earn targets all over the field. The Bengals would be wise to keep him around to help aid Joe Burrow’s transition into the NFL.
5. Amari Cooper, WR (age: 25)
Over the Cap projection: 5 years, $100 million
Cooper is the most promising receiving available this offseason but the cost will be steep. While he is one of the better receivers in the league, I don’t think he’s quite in that elite class, and his short-term ceiling might be lower than Green’s if the 32-year-old does, in fact, make it back to full health.
6. Devin McCourty, S (age: 32)
Over the Cap projection: 2 years, $20 million
The long-time Patriots safety isn’t widely viewed as the top safety available this offseason, but there isn’t one I’d be more comfortable paying. Justin Simmons is a close second but figures to sign a much bigger deal. McCourty is a reliable center fielder who can drop into the box and play man coverage.
7. Andrew Whitworth, LT (age: 38)
Over the Cap projection: 1 year, $11 million
The 2019 season did not go as planned for Whitworth but he’s still a very good blindside protector who won’t harm a team’s salary cap situation. Penalties were up for the veteran last season but his pressure and sack numbers remained near the top of the league. Any tackle-needy team ready to compete for a playoff spot should give Whitworth a look.
8. Justin Simmons, S (age: 26)
Over the Cap projection: 4 years, $57 million
Of the young safeties available in free agency, Simmons is my favorite. He’s a good athlete whose instincts show up on film. He can drop deep or cover slot receivers. Anthony Harris is viewed as the top safety available but Simmons is a far more active player. The Broncos should slap him with the franchise tag and try to work out a long-term deal.
9. Chris Jones, DT (age: 25)
Over the Cap projection: 4 years, $72 million
I’d typically advise against paying a defensive tackle the kind of money Jones will likely get, but he’s a rare one who can dominate a game — as we saw in the Chiefs’ Super Bowl victory. Jones was arguably the best player on the field that night.
10. Jameis Winston, QB (age: 26)
Over the Cap projection: 1 year, $27 million
I’ve written at length about why I’d take a long-term bet on the talented Bucs quarterback. You can read my extended thoughts here. A short summary: Outside of the interceptions, Winston is one of the league’s most productive quarterbacks and it’s unlikely that his poor interception luck will continue. He’s never going to be a single-digit interception guy, but he should be able to cut his interception total in half without sacrificing his big-play ability. Perhaps he was just a LASIK surgery away from reaching his full potential.
11. Cory Littleton, LB (age: 26)
Over the Cap projection: 4 years, $48 million
The Rams’ poor cap management will catch up to them this offseason, and losing Littleton will be the most impactful loss. He’s been one of the best linebackers in the NFL over the last two seasons thanks to his rare coverage ability and play-making range. Every team can use a scheme-diverse player like that in the middle of their defense.
12. Anthony Castonzo, LT (age: 31)
Over the Cap projection: 3 years, $39 million
Sturdy left tackles like Castonzo don’t often make it to free agency, and I doubt it will happen this offseason, as the Colts have enough cap space to tag him if they can’t work out a long-term deal with the 31-year-old. Castonzo is a reliable run-blocker but his work in pass protection makes him so valuable.
13. Hunter Henry, TE (age: 25)
Over the Cap projection: 1 year, $10 million
Henry has the talent to be one of the league’s best tight ends, but injuries and inconsistency at the catch point have prevented him from getting to that level. He’s an OK run blocker and route runner, and while his big frame and athleticism make him a threat in the red zone, he does let a lot of 50/50 balls get away from him. If Henry gets to the open market, he’ll be paid like a top-tier tight end, but he’s just a cut below that at this point in his career.
14. Jadeveon Clowney, EDGE (age: 27)
Over the Cap projection: 5 years, $105 million
Box score watchers may not appreciate Clowney’s game, but he’s established himself as one of the league’s dominant edge defenders. Despite seeing a high number of double teams during the 2019 season, Clowney still managed to put pressure on opposing quarterbacks, finishing seventh in ESPN’s Pass Block Win Rate metric. So why is Clowney so low on this list? Well, the rest of the NFL knows how good he is, and the bidding way will inflate his contract value.
15. Byron Jones, CB (age: 27)
Over the Cap projection: 5 years, $80 million
With Dallas needing to pay Dak and Amari, Jones could be the odd man out. But don’t feel too sorry for him. If that happens, Jones will be considered the top cornerback on the market and should fetch a deal that makes him one of the richest defensive backs in NFL history. I’m not sure if he’s capable of living up to such a deal. Jones is a decent man corner but not one who’s going to shadow a top receiver. He’s a good No. 1 and a top-end No. 2.
16. Teddy Bridgewater, QB (age: 27)
Over the Cap projection: 2 years, $18 million
I’m just going to choose to ignore that report saying that Bridgewater could command up to $30 million a year (it’s that time of the year) because if that were actually the case, he’d be a lot lower on this list. Based on the last few weeks of his tryout as the Saints starter, Bridgewater looks like a league-average starting QB who could produce like an above-average one with the right pieces around him. If a team can get that kind of production for around $20 million a season, it’s a win.
17. Ryan Tannehill, QB (age: 31)
Over the Cap projection: 1 year, $25 million
I’d put Tannehill in the same boat as Bridgewater, but with the former enjoying a longer run of success in 2019, he could (and should) command more money. If I had to pick between the two, I’d pick the cheaper option. Tannehill’s advanced metrics were among the best in the league in 2019, but a lot of that could just be noise. He was unusually efficient on play-action and pressured dropbacks, which tend to be volatile year-to-year. It’s unlikely that Tannehill will once again perform like a top-five — or even top-10 –quarterback, but “league-average” starter is doable.
18. Shaquil Barrett, EDGE (age: 27)
Over the Cap projection: 4 years, $66 million
I can say one thing about Barrett’s breakout season: It wasn’t a fluke. Now, I don’t think he’s going to rack up 19.5 sacks again, but the pressure numbers he’s put up in the past while playing in a reserve role suggest he’s more than a one-year wonder. Barrett isn’t a dominant edge rusher by any means, but with his athleticism and a relentless motor, he will hover around the 10-sack mark for years to come. I don’t know if that kind of production is worth the money he’ll get this offseason, but there are worse ways for teams to spend their cap dollars.
19. Breshad Perriman, WR (age: 26)
Over the Cap projection: 1 year, $7 million
In terms of receiving talent, Perriman isn’t in the top-five of this free-agent class, but he’s going to be cheap and he has a skill set that a lot of teams could use in their receiving corps. During his time in Tampa, Perriman proved he can be a dangerous deep threat, but he also showed his chops as a potential No. 1 target during the absence of Mike Evans late in the season. Perriman has that kind of ability; there’s a reason he was drafted in the first round. He’s a better route-runner than he gets credit for, and it appears he’s gotten over the injury issues that sabotaged his early career.
20. James Bradberry, CB (age: 26)
Over the Cap projection: 5 years, $68 million
Bradberry’s numbers don’t do him justice. That’s just what happens when you play in the same division as Julio Jones, Michael Thomas and Mike Evans. And Carolina asked him to shadow those guys during those games, which led to some ugly highlights. But Bradberry is a smart zone corner who can play sticky man coverage against lesser receivers. He’s not a No. 1 corner, but he can be a high-end No. 2.
21. Emmanuel Sanders, WR (age: 32)
Over the Cap projection: 3 years, $30 million
Sanders is on the wrong side of 30 and he’s no longer a receiver that’s going to scare defenses down the field, but he still knows how to get open and move the chains. For a team that’s lacking a third-down security blanket for its quarterback (and doesn’t have a ton of cash to spend), Sanders is an ideal target.
22. D.J. Reader, DT (age: 25)
Over the Cap projection: 4 years, $54 million
Had Reader hit the market two years ago, he would have been much lower on this list. But the run-stuffing behemoth has steadily improved as a pass rusher to the point where the Texans could keep him on the field on third downs. Reader is going to get paid, but if he continues on his current track, the contract he gets this offseason could look like a steal a year from now.
23. Joe Thuney, G (age: 27)
Over the Cap projection: 5 years, $68 million
Thuney was one of the few bright spots on a Patriots offensive line that took a major step back in 2019 after serving as the engine for the team’s Super Bowl run the previous season. He’s a solid pass protector and a good run blocker. Thuney’s not going to transform an offensive line, but he will improve it.
24. Robby Anderson, WR (age: 26)
Over the Cap projection: 4 years, $53 million
I love Anderson’s game. He’s one of the fastest receivers in the league and he knows how to track a deep ball. But he’s not a versatile route-runner and his small frame limits his ceiling. He’s more of a complementary No. 2 than a guy capable of carrying a receiving corps. And that’s fine! But projections from Spotrac and Over the Cap suggest Anderson could bring in an average salary ranging from $12 million to $16 million a season. That’s a bit much for a complementary piece.
25. Brandon Scherff, G (age: 28)
Over the Cap projection: 5 years, $70 million
If not for injuries, Scherff would be a lot higher on this list. He’s going to get paid like one of the top guards in football this offseason. He’s that good, but he’s also missed 13 games over the past two seasons, so whichever team forks over that money will be taking a huge risk.
The best of the rest
26. Jack Conklin, T (age: 25)
Conklin is headed for a big payday but he’s a better run blocker than pass blocker, and the latter is more important in today’s NFL.
27. Chris Harris Jr. (age: 30)
Not too long ago, Harris was one of the best cover guys in the league. That’s no longer the case, but moving back to the slot full-time could rejuvenate his career.
28. Tre Boston, S (age: 27)
29. Anthony Harris, S (age: 28)
I don’t get the fascination with Harris, whom Pro Football Focus graded as the NFL’s best safety over the past two seasons. He’s fast and has good ball skills, but he rarely makes plays that aren’t right in front of him and isn’t at all interested in tackling. There isn’t much of a difference between Harris and Boston, and the latter seemingly has to wait until training camp to get signed every season. If I’m a team looking for a free safety this offseason, I’d take Boston, who won’t cost nearly as much.
30. Robert Quinn, DE (age: 30)
It seems like Quinn has been in the league forever, but he’s still only 30 and coming off an 11.5-sack season that was backed by impressive advanced metrics.
31. Arik Armstead, DE (age: 26)
Landing back in San Francisco, where he has a clearly defined role that suits him perfectly, would be best for the big defensive end, who is more of an edge setter than a dominant pass rusher.
32. Jimmie Ward, S (age: 28)
Ward is a jack of all trades but a master of none. He’s an OK free safety and slot corner, but don’t expect him to change games from either of those spots. Still, his versatility will be valued.
33. Austin Hooper, TE (age: 25)
Hooper has put up some impressive numbers in Atlanta — which has earned him two Pro Bowl nods — but he’s a scheme-reliant tight end who is better at finding holes in zone coverage than he is beating the man across from him.
34. Jason Peters, T (age: 38)
Age and injury are the two major concerns, but when the future hall-of-famer is on the field, he can shut down even the best pass rushers.
35. Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, S (age: 27)
Clinton-Dix never quite lived up to the pre-draft hype, but he’s proven to be a league-average safety who can make some plays … while also giving up some big ones in the process.
36. Joe Schobert, LB (age: 28)
Two decades ago, Schobert may have been playing safety. He’s a useless run defender but his coverage skills make him a valuable linebacker in a pass-happy league.
37. Yannick Ngakoue, DE (age: 24)
I don’t know how to feel about Ngakoue. He’s a good pass rusher, for sure, but he’s going to demand top tier money and he’s not quite at that level. While Ngakoue will be productive over the course of his new contract, it’s almost a certainty that he’ll be overpaid.
38. Javon Hargrave, DL (age: 27)
Hargrave has improved just enough as a pass rusher to make himself a valuable commodity. He’s still a run-stuffer, first and foremost, but he can also provide some early-down pressure and won’t cost his new team too much cap space.
39. Brian Bulaga, T (age: 30)
The Packers will probably end up tagging Bulaga, who was a key player on one of the best lines in football. He’s a solid pass protector who will get a ton of money if he hits the open market.
40. Matthew Judon, EDGE (age: 27)
Judon gave the Ravens the breakout season they desperately needed from him, but a lot of his production was the result of Don Martindale’s blitz-happy scheme, which provided Judon with winnable matchups.
41. Kyle Van Noy, EDGE (age: 29)
I love Van Noy’s game, but I’m not sure how valuable it is to most teams in the NFL. If he doesn’t land with a team like New England or Baltimore, he’s not going to live up to the contract he’s likely to get this offseason.
42. Eric Ebron, TE (age: 26)
We pretty much know what Ebron is at this point in his career: He’s basically another receiver with good physical ability but a suspect pair of hands. At the right price, he could be an asset.
43. Micheal Bennett, DE (age: 34)
Even at this stage in his career, Bennett remains a productive player as both a pass rusher and run defender. He’s not the dominant edge-rusher he once was but he’s also much cheaper now.
44. Dante Fowler Jr., EDGE (age: 25)
I put Fowler in the same bucket as Ngakoue, only he’s not quite the pass rusher his former teammate has. become He’s going to put up good numbers but a team is going to pay him too much money to do so.
45. Shelby Harris, DL (age: 28)
Harris created more havoc as a reserve pass-rusher before taking on a bigger role for the Broncos in 2019. While he wasn’t quite as productive, he still proved to be a solid presence inside. Harris is a good, cheap option for teams lacking depth on the defensive line.
46. Graham Glasgow, G (age: 27)
Glasgow is still in his prime, he’s a good run blocker and he isn’t liability as a pass protector. In other words, he’s going to get paid a lot.
47. Bud Dupree, EDGE (age: 27)
Beware of the big contract year! More importantly, Dupree’s big sack total in 2019 is suspect as his advanced pressure numbers do not paint an encouraging picture. Dupree will be looking to cash in; smarter teams will stay away, but it only takes one.
48. Leonard Williams, DT (age: 25)
A trade to the Giants led to more production for the 2016 sixth-overall pick, but Williams isn’t the pass rusher we all expected him to be coming out of college. He’s a serviceable starting tackle and not much more.
49. Brian Poole, CB (age: 27)
Poole is not your typical slot corner. He’s not particularly fast or agile. But he’s a smart player who will contribute in a zone-heavy scheme.
50. Derrick Henry, RB (age: 25)
Henry is quite possibly the most dominant runner in the league. One problem: Running backs don’t matter. Another problem: There is a lot of miles on those tires.
Other notable free agents (listed in alphabetical order):
Blake Martinez, LB; Bradley Roby, Connor McGovern, C; CB; Damarious Randall, S; Danny Amendola, WR; Eli Apple, CB; Gerald McCoy, DT; Jamie Collins, LB; Jarran Reed, DT; Jordan Howard, RB; Josh Norman, CB; Karl Joseph, S; Logan Ryan, CB; Marcus Mariota, QB; Melvin Gordon, RB; Michael Brockers, DL; Michael Pierce, DT; Mike Daniels, DL; Ndamukong Suh, DT; Nelson Agholor, WR; Ronald Darby, CB; Shaq Lawson, EDGE; Tony Jefferson, S; Trae Waynes, CB; Vonn Bell, S
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