1%. That was a number that stuck out to the 2021 Michigan Wolverines, and it became a rallying cry en route to the first of three straight Big Ten Championships. And that very well could be the rallying cry once again in 2024.
That 1% number came from the 2021 preseason ESPN FPI — which was widely panned last preseason when Michigan football was ranked No. 6 behind Ohio State, Georgia, Texas, Alabama, and LSU. Two of the aforementioned did make the College Football Playoff in 2023 with the Wolverines being the team that hoisted the trophy after winning the national championship against Washington.
ESPN has revealed its latest FPI predictions, an advanced analytics predictive model that the outlet uses on a game-by-game basis while looking forward to the season that will be.
So with the four new former Pac-12 teams joining the Big Ten, what does ESPN say about the outlook of the conference as a whole? Here are how all 18 Big Ten teams rank against each other.
Overall rank: 2
Projected wins and losses: 10.8-1.8
Win conference: 37.5%
Playoff: 76%
Make championship: 24.4%
Win championship: 12.8%
Overall rank: 4
Projected wins and losses: 10.2-2.2
Win conference: 25.7%
Playoff: 67.2%
Make championship: 19%
Win championship: 10.5%
Overall rank: 6
Projected wins and losses: 10.1-2.3
Win conference: 22.2%
Playoff: 59.1%
Make championship: 13.3%
Win championship: 6.6%
Overall rank: 12
Projected wins and losses: 8.3-3.9
Win conference: 7.3%
Playoff: 28.5%
Make championship: 4%
Win championship: 1.7%
Overall rank: 18
Projected wins and losses: 7.1-5.1
Win conference: 2.9%
Playoff: 13.4%
Make championship: 1.1%
Win championship: 0.3%
Overall rank: 31
Projected wins and losses: 6.4-5.6
Win conference: 0.5%
Playoff: 6%
Make championship: 0.3%
Win championship: 0.1%
Overall rank: 37
Projected wins and losses: 7-5
Win conference: 0.9%
Playoff: 7.4%
Make championship: 0.3%
Win championship: 0.1%
Overall rank: 39
Projected wins and losses: 5.8-6.2
Win conference: 0.5%
Playoff: 3.1%
Make championship: 0.1%
Win championship: 0.1%
Overall rank: 40
Projected wins and losses: 5.5-6.5
Win conference: 0.3%
Playoff: 2.8%
Make championship: 0.1%
Win championship: 0%
Overall rank: 41
Projected wins and losses: 6.5-5.5
Win conference: 0.6%
Playoff: 4.9%
Make championship: 0.2%
Win championship: 0%
Overall rank: 45
Projected wins and losses: 7.2-4.8
Win conference: 1%
Playoff: 5.6%
Make championship: 0.2%
Win championship: 0.1%
Overall rank: 46
Projected wins and losses: 6.6-5.4
Win conference: 0.4%
Playoff: 4.8%
Make championship: 0.2%
Win championship: 0%
Overall rank: 57
Projected wins and losses: 5.5-6.5
Win conference: 0.1%
Playoff: 1.4%
Make championship: 0%
Win championship: 0%
Overall rank: 60
Projected wins and losses: 4.5-7.5
Win conference: 0.1%
Playoff: 0.7%
Make championship: 0%
Win championship: 0%
Overall rank: 61
Projected wins and losses: 5.3-6.7
Win conference: 0.1%
Playoff: 1%
Make championship: 0%
Win championship: 0%
Overall rank: 62
Projected wins and losses: 5.3-6.7
Win conference: 0.1%
Playoff: 1%
Make championship: 0%
Win championship: 0%
Overall rank: 68
Projected wins and losses: 4.8-7.2
Win conference: 0%
Playoff: 0.6%
Make championship: 0%
Win championship: 0%
Overall rank: 77
Projected wins and losses: 5.3-6.7
Win conference: 0%
Playoff: 0.5%
Make championship: 0%
Win championship: 0%