For the second time this season, the Rams and 49ers will square off – this time with major playoff implications on the line. The Rams are visiting the 49ers on Saturday night for a prime-time showdown at Levi’s Stadium, needing to win their last two games in order to have a chance at the playoffs.
In preparation for this game, we talked to Niners Wire editor Kyle Madson about the state of the 49ers and how he expects this game to go. The 49ers shut down the Rams 20-7 last time around, but Madson doesn’t expect a blowout again on Saturday.
The 49ers allowed 75 points in their last two games. Are they on a decline defensively or were those outliers?
There’s a little bit of nuance and context provided to those 75 points. They simply got torched in New Orleans. Drew Brees is a shoo-in Hall of Famer and he showed it against San Francisco. He carved up the 49ers’ secondary and Saints head coach Sean Payton had an excellent game plan that, frankly, schooled 49ers defensive coordinator Robert Saleh.
The 29 points the Falcons scored are a little more flukey. First, the 49ers had five starters out on defense, including Pro Bowl cornerback Richard Sherman, nickel corner K’Waun Williams, and strong safety Jaquiski Tartt. That trio would’ve made a huge difference against Falcons WR Julio Jones, who had 13 catches for 134 yards. His 134 yards accounted for 46 percent of the Falcons’ offensive yards. One of the Falcons’ touchdowns came on a scoop-and-score on a failed lateral attempt at the end of the game. Another came after an iffy pass interference all in the end zone on a 37-yard bomb.
Diminishing depth on the defensive line has made their pass rush less effective. They have just three sacks the last three weeks after posting three-plus sacks in 10 of their first 11 games. That, combined with injuries in the secondary have led to some coverage breakdowns and a dip in interceptions. Also, the 49ers were playing at a historically great level through the first eight or so weeks. They were due for a regression, but they’re still a very good defense when they’re healthy.
Does Jimmy Garoppolo have the ability to carry the offense if the running game is shut down?
Yes. We saw it twice against the Cardinals and against the Saints in New Orleans. Garoppolo is finally getting into a groove in Kyle Shanahan’s offense, and his numbers since Week 8 have been excellent. In those eight games, he’s completing 69.6 percent of his throws with 19 touchdowns and five interceptions. The bigger issue is the 49ers’ receiving corps. We’ve seen Garoppolo spin it and win games, but the receiving corps was reliable in those contests. They were non-existent against the Falcons after Atlanta went to more man coverage. The trio of Deebo Samuel, Emmanuel Sanders and Kendrick Bourne had started to emerge as a nice group, but they had just four catches for 49 yards against the Falcons. Garoppolo isn’t the biggest question mark for the passing attack at this point. That falls on the shoulders of those three receivers.
How has San Francisco overcome the loss of Kwon Alexander?
Some would argue they haven’t. Rookie fifth-round pick Dre Greenlaw has done an okay job at the Will linebacker spot for Alexander, but his inexperience shows through too often. Alexander was the emotional heartbeat of the 49ers’ defense, but his experience and knowledge of the defense allowed him to play at full speed all the time. His absence has allowed teams to attack horizontally with success more often. That mitigates the impact the 49ers’ pass rush can have, and everything snowballs from there. Greenlaw has filled in admirably, and the 49ers still have a Super Bowl-caliber defense when he’s in, but they miss Alexander’s speed and coverage ability.
How big of a difference has Emmanuel Sanders made?
He’s been perhaps the biggest reason for Garoppolo and the passing game’s turnaround. In six games prior to Sanders’ arrival, Garoppolo was completing 68.3 percent of his throws for 219 yards per game and 7.9 yards per attempt with seven touchdowns and six interceptions. In eight games since his arrival, he’s ripping off a 69.6 completion rate, 266.2 yards per game and 8.2 yards per attempt with 19 touchdowns and five picks. Garoppolo trusts Sanders, and that jibes well with the quarterback’s willingness to let throws rip into tight coverage. Sanders has good wiggle and can get open in a phone booth. Perhaps the biggest indicator of Sanders’ impact is this: The 49ers are 5-3 since Sanders arrived in San Francisco. In those five wins, he has 29 targets, 22 catches, 342 yards and 3 touchdowns. The 49ers score 40 points per game. In their three losses, he’s had just 14 targets, 8 catches, 74 yards and zero touchdowns. The 49ers score 21 points per game in those contests.
How do you predict this game going?
Great question! No idea. I’m ready to believe anything about the 49ers at this point considering the juxtaposition between Weeks 14 and 15. They went blow-for-blow with the Saints in the Superdome, then stumbled at home against the Falcons. The Rams’ offensive line may be just what the 49ers’ defensive front needs to come back to life, and while Aaron Donald is sure to wreak havoc in the middle of the line, the 49ers have had a week to game plan around that after watching what Grady Jarrett was able to do against them last week (he wrecked shop, FYI). I think this one winds up going a lot like their first matchup with a narrow 49ers victory. 49ers 23, Rams 21