Back in 2019, the Los Angeles Rams decided that two-plus seasons was a big enough sample size for them to feel strongly about committing to Jared Goff as their long-term starting quarterback. He made the Pro Bowl in back-to-back seasons after Sean McVay was hired, he outdueled Patrick Mahomes in a historic 54-51 win in prime time, the Rams reached the Super Bowl and the future was bright for Goff in Los Angeles.
Or so it seemed.
Fast forward 16 months and Goff is no longer the team’s answer at quarterback. Less than two years after signing a four-year, $134 million extension, Goff fell out of favor with the Rams and will be traded to the Lions for Matthew Stafford on March 17 when trades can become official.
Goff’s fall from grace in the City of Angels was steep and shocking. However, it was also something the Rams could’ve planned for much, much better.
If you look back at the timeline, the Rams could’ve actually moved on from Goff this offseason without any penalty whatsoever. That’s because they signed him to a record-setting extension two years before they had to.
Goff’s rookie contract was for four years and was worth $27.9 million. Being a first-round pick, it came with a fifth-year option in 2020, which the Rams picked up back in April of 2019. It was projected to be valued at around $22.73 million.
So in total, the Rams could’ve had Goff for five years and paid him a total of about $50.63 million.
Instead, by signing him to a contract extension in 2019, his cap hit that season jumped from $8.9 million to $10.6 million – an extra $1.7 million. Not a huge difference, admittedly, but it gets worse. The extension raised his cap hit in 2020 from the projected $22.73 million for the fifth-year option to $28.8 million – a difference of $6.07 million.
So just in those two seasons, the Rams paid Goff $7.77 million more than they would have if they just let him play out his rookie contract. But the biggest issue comes in the form of dead money.
By trading Goff, the Rams will take on a hit of $22.2 million in 2021, the largest single-season dead cap charge in NFL history – the only dead cap hit larger than Brandin Cooks’ of $21.8 million in 2020.
So in total, that’s about $30 million more than the Rams would’ve paid Goff had they not given him a four-year, $134 million extension. According to Spotrac, the Rams paid him $57 million over the past two seasons, but had they kept him on his rookie deal, he would’ve been owed only $27 million – thus, the $30 million difference.
The #Rams paid Jared Goff $57M over the past two seasons.
Had they left him on his rookie contract, the #Rams would have paid Jared Goff $27M over the past two seasons, & he would be a pending unrestricted free agent.https://t.co/m0WNqxEvcW
— Spotrac (@spotrac) February 1, 2021
The worst part is, he didn’t play a single snap on that contract. It was set to begin in 2021 and run through 2024, but the Rams will see him play exactly zero games on the deal.
That has to be frustrating, no matter how good they feel about having Stafford under center moving forward. Unfortunately, it should feel familiar to Les Snead, Tony Pastoors and the entire front office.
The same exact thing happened with Todd Gurley. He signed a four-year, $60 million contract extension in 2018, which was set to begin in 2020. Of course, the Rams cut him last offseason before the contract took effect.
Todd Gurley's rookie contract originally would have run until 2020 and paid him $11.95M. Ended up earning $34.5M over the same term, a $22.55M raise. Never actually played a down in any of the new contract years. #Rams
— Jason_OTC (@Jason_OTC) March 19, 2020
There’s no denying the Rams botched both of these contracts. Neither Goff nor Gurley played a single game on their record-setting deals, being traded or cut before the extensions took effect.
Goff cost the Rams $22.2 million in dead money.
Gurley left a $20.15 million dead cap charge when he was cut.
And if you add in Cooks’ $21.8 million in dead money, that’s $64.15 million in total dead cap charges for three players.
Yikes.
There was a reason the Rams signed Goff when they did, though. Carson Wentz signed a massive extension with the Eagles in June of 2019, three months before the Rams got their deal done with Goff. Dak Prescott was in line to earn a lucrative new deal, too, as was Patrick Mahomes in the not-too-distant future.
The Rams wanted to get out in front of those contracts, which would’ve driven up the price for Goff. That’s understandable. But there were signs of regression from Goff late in the 2018 season when he began to struggle. Rather than taking a wait-and-see approach with him, the Rams trusted that it was merely a blip on the radar. Clearly, it was much more than that.
The other added cost of signing Goff when the Rams did was the price it took to land their new quarterback, Stafford. While not explicitly reported, it’s possible the Rams had to add in an extra pick just for the Lions to take on Goff’s bloated contract – similar to the way the Texans did with Brock Osweiler. Now, it wasn’t to that extent, but it’s reasonable to think the Rams needed to add a little bit more to convince the Lions to take Goff.
Regardless of whether that’s true or not, it still cost the Rams two first-round picks and a third-rounder – plus $22.2 million – to swap out Goff for Stafford. Had they not signed Goff, they would’ve had more money available in free agency, too.
It might be a futile exercise to look back at what could have been. There are always hypotheticals in the NFL for every team, not just the Rams. But this isn’t the first time they’ve mishandled a high-priced contract. We just have to hope it’s the last.
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