Sean McVay has been viewed as an innovator and an offensive wizard since being hired as the Rams’ head coach in 2017. His track record backs up those claims, when it comes to aggressiveness, McVay doesn’t rank near the top of the league. In fact, the Rams have frequently been one of the least aggressive teams during his tenure.
Last season, they went for it on fourth down just 13 times in 2019, tied for the third-fewest in the NFL. Their conversion rate of 23.1% was 31st in football, ahead of only the Steelers. In 2018, they converted 40% of the time on 15 attempts, and in 2017, they were 5-for-12 (41.7%).
A good portion of those fourth-down attempts came on fake punts, too, using either a special teams player to run for the first or having Johnny Hekker throw a pass. Unfortunately, those attempts seem to come up short more often than not.
Specifically with regards to this past season, the Rams played it very safe on fourth down. According to Ben Baldwin of The Athletic, only the Redskins were less aggressive. The following chart is based on New York Times’ suggestion of when to go for it on fourth down, according to statistics and analytics. As you can see, the Rams are on the far right of the graph.
Final 4th down aggressiveness in 2019 pic.twitter.com/TIUw1NVboj
— new-age analytical (@benbbaldwin) January 2, 2020
Unsurprisingly, the Ravens were more aggressive than any team, boasting the best offense in the NFL. Now, fourth-down aggressiveness doesn’t always translate to success, but it does help sustain drives when you can convert consistently on that crucial down; Baltimore was 17-for-24 on fourth this season.
Too often, McVay opted to either punt the ball away or attempt a trick play to convert rather than trusting Jared Goff and the offense. remember that two-play sequence against the Steelers when Goff was pulled for Blake Bortles on third down and then the Rams attempted (and failed) a fake punt?
The Rams punted it 12 times between their opponents’ 40-yard line and midfield. On five of those punts, the Rams needed to pick up 5 or fewer yards. Only four times did the Rams go for it on fourth-down between midfield and the opponents’ 20-yard line and they failed each time.
This is one area the Rams can stand to evaluate and improve in 2020. Adding another offensive coach to the mix wouldn’t hurt, even if it isn’t a true offensive coordinator to work with McVay.
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