Rams had 99.6% chance to beat 49ers with 1:57 left in 4th quarter

The Rams blew a big lead to the 49ers and even had a 99.6% chance to win late in the fourth.

How improbable was the San Francisco 49ers’ comeback victory against the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday? Well, at two different points in the game, the Rams had at least a 90% chance to win.

And near the end of the fourth quarter, they had a near-100% chance of beating the 49ers but simply couldn’t hold on.

They led 17-0 in the first half but allowed the 49ers to claw back in and tie it at 17. After the Rams took a 24-17 lead in the fourth quarter, they seemed on their way to victory — especially after the 49ers punted with 1:57 left in the game.

According to Next Gen Stats, the 49ers had only a 0.4% win probability after punting it back to the Rams. They had all three timeouts so a defensive stand got them the ball back, but they still needed to drive the length of the field for a touchdown with under two minutes and no timeouts.

Somehow, they pulled it off and then won in overtime, 27-24.

Needless to say, the Rams will be kicking themselves after this one. They could’ve secured the No. 2 seed and a first-round matchup with the Saints. All they needed was a first down after the 49ers punted or a stop on San Francisco’s final drive of regulation.

They got neither and will now face the Cardinals next week.