Few things capture the imagination of pro wrestling fans like big stars migrating from one promotion to another. In just the last few months, we’ve seen it play those scenarios play out several times.
Jade Cargill was a big deal as a homegrown AEW star who signed with WWE. CM Punk made huge waves by returning to WWE, something long thought to be a pipe dream. And hardcore wrestling fans are salivating over the opportunity to see Will Ospreay in AEW on a regular basis beginning next year.
Yet in terms of his status within his current company, no wrestler who’s rumored to be considering a change is bigger than New Japan’s Kazuchika Okada. Since his return in 2012, the Rainmaker has become “the man” for NJPW, carrying the company on his back and accomplishing pretty much everything meaningful there is to achieve.
That’s also why it’s easy to believe reports, like the one in Sports Illustrated this week, that Okada is thinking hard about joining a top U.S. promotion once his contract expires next year. At 36 years old, if Okada wants to prove himself in North America while he’s still in his prime, this is the time.
Both WWE and AEW are said to have interest in Okada, and why wouldn’t they? When one of the best wrestlers in the world, one with a proven track record of fantastic in-ring performances and undeniable presence, is available, it’s not hard to daydream of ways to put his talents to use.
The question, then, is a simple one: Would WWE or AEW be a better fit for the Rainmaker? Let’s run through the pros and cons for each company. Note that because wrestler pay never really gets disclosed, we’re not going to include financial considerations, real as they may be, as the assumption is that both companies would pay Okada what he’s looking for if they want him enough.
Okada to WWE
Pros:
If Okada was to join WWE, he’d have the knowledge that someone almost as prominent as he was in New Japan blazed a trail for him. That would be Shinsuke Nakamura, someone who is said to still be close with Okada. Just like soccer players often help players from the same country settle in at new clubs, Nakamura would be a big help easing Okada’s transition.
There’s no question that the WWE style, while expanding somewhat toward longer matches now that Paul “Triple H” Levesque is at the creative helm, would mean less wear and tear on Okada’s body. And while both top U.S. companies have experience using managers as mouthpieces for talent who could use a boost on the microphone — which could be important since Okada isn’t a fluent English speaker — WWE has the best in the business in Paul Heyman.
Above all, WWE is simply the best in class in the wrestling industry. Its video packages and presentation are second to none, and Okada’s chances of becoming a star who transcends pro wrestling are optimized if he signs there. Almost every North American wrestler dreams of making it on the biggest possible stage, and if Okada has a similar motivation if and when he makes the jump, he’ll have a hard time passing up that opportunity.
Cons:
Are we sure that Nakamura’s WWE tenure is one Okada will see as a blueprint for his own? Though Shinsuke has been around the main event scene at times and just had a world title shot against Seth Rollins at Payback (possibly not a coincidence, given WWE’s reported interest in Okada), he’s often been more of an upper midcard type, with a tendency to get lost in the shuffle for months at a time. Okada will rightfully expect more, but there are a lot of big players in WWE at the moment, especially with Punk back.
Even if each match is less strenuous on average, the WWE schedule remains a grueling one, and Okada would likely be working more dates overall than he ever has to this point. Does he want to do all the extra appearances and things that come with being a WWE Superstar?
Finally, there’s simply the big unknown. It’s reasonable to expect that more WWE fans know who Okada is than, say, a decade ago, but there are still tons of people who watch WWE and no other kinds of wrestling. The always online types will be excited about the Rainmaker’s arrival, and the company will do its best to make him seem like the top guy he is — announcers are certainly allowed to mention success in Japan on the air, for instance. Yet there’s always going to be the chance that Okada doesn’t have the impact he’d want or many would expect.
Okada to AEW
Pros:
There’s a comfort level AEW can offer that WWE simply can’t. The audience absolutely knows Okada, as he’s appeared on both weekly TV and pay-per-views in the past, along with both editions of the co-branded Forbidden Door cards with NJPW. A decent chunk of the locker room consists of people he’s been in the ring with at least once, and that’s not even counting Ospreay.
If Okada wants to keep doing the types of matches that rack up five-star ratings from Dave Meltzer, this is the company in which to do it. Tony Khan would certainly indulge the Rainmaker in some lengthy bouts, particularly on PPV where AEW is unafraid to go past the standard three-hour running time.
And if Okada’s end goal is becoming a world champ in a North American promotion, AEW is the place with a clearer path. Yes, there’s only one world title there as opposed to WWE’s two (or three, depending on how you feel about Roman Reigns’ Undisputed WWE Universal Championship, itself an amalgamation of two titles), and it’s sometimes been held for long periods of time. But even with the big names on AEW’s roster, it’s hard to picture Okada not having a place on a short list of serious contenders very soon after signing.
Cons:
AEW isn’t as hot as it was over the prior two years, so Okada would be joining at what is arguably its lowest point in its relatively short history. It’s possible that he would see that as an opportunity rather than a strike against it, and maybe an appeal to help it become the “in” thing in U.S. wrestling again would work. But it’s also possible Okada looks at AEW and sees a promotion that is simply not as attractive as it might have been at the beginning of 2023.
Familiar faces also could work both ways. Okada has already wrestled Kenny Omega, Bryan Danielson, Adam Cole, and the list goes on. He’s had tremendous battles with Jay White and Ospreay. Been there, done that. Fans would no doubt want to see him run it back, but is that what Okada wants? True dream matches pitting him against wrestlers he’s never faces before mostly lie elsewhere.
If Okada decides to make a move, the decision between WWE and AEW is going to come down to his own personal preferences, which is as it should be. AEW offers more familiarity, both with the talent and the fans, as well as a greater chance that he’ll be positioned as one of the top stars sooner rather than later.
In WWE, Okada would likely have to modify his style a bit but would reap potential benefits in terms of less physical strain and a much higher upside in terms of becoming a household name outside of wrestling fans. He could also satisfy the diehards with never before seen pairings, but at the risk of becoming just another cog in a very big wheel.
He could also very well decide neither company feels right and remain in NJPW. Whatever choice Okada makes could end up telling us a lot about him as a person, and it’s going to be fascinating no matter which road he ends up taking.