Rafael Stone thinks Houston is more likely to operate above salary cap

Stone didn’t rule out the possibility of going under, but he indicated that staying above the cap this offseason is more likely.

In Tuesday’s press conference following the NBA draft lottery, Rockets general manager Rafael Stone indicated Houston is more likely than not to stay above the league’s salary cap in 2021 free agency.

While he noted that going below the cap was possible, should the right player be available, he believes scenarios of staying above the cap are more likely. Operating above the cap would prevent the Rockets from having to dump any of their current salaries, and it would allow them to retain Bird rights to internal free agents, such as Kelly Olynyk.

Here’s what Stone told reporters Tuesday, when asked whether landing the No. 2 overall pick (which carries a higher price tag than most rookies) might prevent the Rockets from having cap room.

We can get under (the cap). We have ways of getting under, if we chose to.

I think it’s always been more likely that we’re going to be a mid-level team, and we’re going to stay over. We have ways of doing that, that we think are good for us, too. To your point about, assuming we pick it (at No. 2 overall), it will have an effect on our cap situation. But it’s not a huge one. So if an opportunity presents itself, I’m confident we can still take advantage of it.

As Stone indicated, Houston would still have several salary cap exceptions at its disposal if it operates above the cap, such as the mid-level exception (MLE) and perhaps the bi-annual exception (BAE).

Thus, for it to be worthwhile for the Rockets to go below the cap, the player available would need to be worth giving up those exceptions, Bird rights to internal free agents like Olynyk, and perhaps even offloading other salaries. While not impossible, that seems unlikely in a 2021 free-agent class that largely appears underwhelming to many observers.

Stone’s press conference can be viewed in its entirety below.

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qPV_SPe1p9U

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