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The Purdue Boilermakers (21-10) and Michigan Wolverines (22-9) clash in a Friday night Big Ten Tournament quarterfinal in Indianapolis. The opening tip at Gainbridge Fieldhouse is slated for 9 p.m. ET (Big Ten Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s college basketball odds around the Purdue vs. Michigan odds, and make our expert college basketball picks and predictions.
Purdue went 13-7 in circuit play and is the No. 6 seed in Indianapolis. The Boilermakers advanced to Saturday with a 76-71 triumph over 14-seed USC on Thursday. Purdue, which trailed for much of the game, failed to cover a -10.5 and is just 2-5 against the spread since Feb. 15.
Michigan, No. 21 in the USA TODAY Sports Men’s Basketball Coaches Poll, went 14-6 in league play and is the No. 3 seed in the Big Ten bracket event. But the Wolverines, who had a double-bye to this stage of the tourney, head into this game having lost their last 3 games straight up and their last 4 ATS. An up-tempo team which usually plays exceptional defense, UM has been hurt of late by opponent 3s. Since Feb. 11, foes have connected on 35% of their triples.
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Purdue vs. Michigan odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:24 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Purdue -155 (bet $155 to win $100) | Michigan +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
- Against the spread (ATS): Purdue -2.5 (-115) | Michigan +2.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 147.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Purdue vs. Michigan picks and predictions
Prediction
Purdue 76, Michigan 72
Moneyline
No interest. PASS.
Against the spread
Against the number, Purdue is 3-1-1 over its last 5 games against Michigan. The last meeting between them was Feb. 11 in Ann Arbor. Three-point-underdog Purdue led that game almost wire-to-wire, including having a 4-point cushion at the 4-minute mark, but eventually lost 75-73.
Look for the Boilermakers, who had previously won 4 straight against the Wolverines (including a 91-64 blowout win Jan. 24), to be revenge-minded and the slight lean on Friday.
Both teams have had plenty of missteps down the stretch, but UM’s slide on offense is the most concerning factor here. BartTorvik pegs UM’s adjusted offensive efficiency at No. 227 in NCAA-I since Feb. 17. The Wolverines have been especially awful from the perimeter (22.1% over that stretch) and have also been loose with the basketball (14.0 turnovers per game in last five).
Purdue has played a tough schedule and despite its losses is well regarded from an all-around efficiency perspective. The Boilermakers are ranked 16th by both BartTorvik and KenPom.
Pace-wise, this is a fast (UM) vs. slow (PU) matchup. Against the 4 slowest teams in the league (Purdue, Minnesota, Northwestern, UCLA), Michigan has gone 1-4 ATS.
Consider a partial-unit play on the BOILERMAKERS -2.5 (-110). That tag is available on FanDuel Sportsbook.
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Over/Under
The Over is 4-1 across the last 5 series meetings and is 3-1 in Purdue’s last 4 games.
Both sides have logged slower tempo numbers of late, but some turnover-transition ball for the Boilermakers and free throws for the Wolverines figure to add up on Friday.
In the aforementioned UM-vs.-turtle games, the Over went 4-1.
Tab the OVER 146.5 (-115) — as priced on FanDuel Sportsbook — with a very slight lean in this one.
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