The No. 17 Providence Friars (17-5, 9-2 Big East) visit the No. 15 Xavier Musketeers (17-5, 9-2) in a top-20 matchup in Cincinnati. The contest at the Cintas Center will tip off at 6:30 p.m. ET (FS1). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Providence vs. Xavier odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.
Providence is on a 3-game win streak straight up and against the spread (ATS). The Friars are a mid-pace squad which is efficient at both ends of the floor and works with monster edges in free-throw frequency. Through 22 games, Providence has attempted 179 more free throws than its opponents.
The Musketeers are 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games against Providence. That stretch includes an overtime game and 3 other games decided by 2 scores or less.
Rankings courtesy the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll.
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Providence at Xavier odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:01 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Providence +150 (bet $100 to win $150) | Xavier -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Providence +4.5 (-115) | Xavier -4.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 153.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Providence at Xavier picks and predictions
Prediction
Xavier 74, Providence 70
Moneyline
Lots of juice drowning out true probabilities here. PASS.
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Against the spread
Xavier does well to avoid too many fouls. And the Musketeers are not a great perimeter-defense team, a weakness we should not expect Providence to adequately leverage.
An Xavier win by 2-to-5 points holds as a reasonable outcome. It is not one conducive to unearthing much, if any value. PASS.
Over/Under
After the last 7 outright Providence wins, the Under has gone 6-1.
The Friars’ defensive efficiency has been trending the right way. The Musketeers have played a schedule leaning toward much better offensive opponents. Both teams have slower pace numbers over recent games.
Wednesday’s figure is 16 points higher than the average listed totals from 2 meetings a year ago. Don’t expect a lot of add-on points in the turnover, 2nd-chance, and 3-point departments. BACK THE UNDER 153.5 (-105).
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