Pros and cons of Packers retaining defensive coordinator Mike Pettine

The Packers are keeping Mike Pettine as defensive coordinator in 2020. We break down the pros and cons of the decision.

The Green Bay Packers are retaining Mike Pettine as the team’s defensive coordinator in 2020, according to reports from both Rob Demovsky of ESPN and Jason Wilde of The Athletic.

Despite an ugly shellacking at the hands of the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Championship Game on Sunday, Pettine will get another shot at running Matt LaFleur’s defense next season.

Here are the pros and cons of the Packers’ decision to keep Pettine:

Pros

Continuity. All of the Packers’ most important defenders will be going into their second or third season in Pettine’s scheme. There’s real value in knowing the defense, both individually and collectively. Everyone should know their job and everyone else’s job, which should aid in communication and reduce the number of breakdowns from missed assignments or mental mistakes. The young secondary, especially safety Darnell Savage and cornerbacks Jaire Alexander and Kevin King, might get the most benefit from Pettine returning.

Possibility of more improvement. The Packers improved in almost every significant defensive category in 2019, Pettine’s second season in Green Bay. To be fair, the bar was set low in 2018, and GM Brian Gutekunst made major additions on defense through the draft and free agency. Still, the Packers finished ninth in points allowed, seventh in takeaways, sixth in opposing passer rating and red-zone scoring percentage and third in interceptions. There’s a strong foundation. The Packers probably feel they’re close. Even incremental improvement could tip the scales, turning an above-average defense into a very good one.

– The 2019 personnel limited his ceiling. The Packers reloaded on defense, but there’s no overlooking the talent deficiencies at inside linebacker and along the defensive line. It’s hard to consistently stop the run and guard the middle of the field with obvious flaws at those two position groups. Blake Martinez and B.J. Goodson are limited players, and Oren Burks couldn’t find the field. The defensive line outside Kenny Clark was a huge disappointment. Rebuilding the inside linebacker position with a young difference-maker and a veteran starter and adding a few legitimate run stuffers could really raise the ceiling of Pettine’s defense.

– The players appreciate him. Pettine is a player’s coach who stresses the details but also molds the defense around his players. Almost every defensive player in the locker room has sung his praises at one point or another. There’s a good chance most of the defensive players are happy about him returning in 2020.

Cons

Results weren’t good enough. The Packers invested major resources into fixing the defense over the last two years. Multiple high picks and millions and millions of dollars were spent on the defensive side of the football. Were the results good enough? The Packers actually went backward in yards allowed per play (5.6 in 2018 to 5.7 in 2019) and finished 16th in weighted defensive DVOA and 18th in expected points added in 2019. The defense picked on bad teams and mostly folded against the good ones. The 49ers scored 74 points in two games, and for a stretch in the middle of the year, the Packers played like one of the NFL’s worst defenses, partly due to level of competition. Pettine’s group played a leading role in three of the team’s four losses.

The Niner effect. Pettine was overmatched and out-coached in two different games by Kyle Shanahan, who leads the current gatekeepers in the NFC. The Packers may need to go through the 49ers to get to a Super Bowl in the coming years. Shanahan’s offense will be considered a big schematic favorite over Pettine’s defense.

Run defense may continue to suffer. Pettine has prioritized stopping the pass. In theory, that’s a smart thing. The passing game is the more efficient and effective manner of playing offense, and it’s hugely valuable when a defense can make it hard to throw the ball. However, Pettine allowed his defense to get gashed by the run in 2019, with Sunday’s one-dimensional destruction in San Francisco providing the new low point for Pettine’s group. Teams have attacked when he’s played recklessly light in the box, and a lack of competitiveness against the run can quickly negate any advantage in the passing game. Over the last two seasons, only five teams have allowed more rushing yards and rushing touchdowns than the Packers.

Bend but don’t break: The Packers were 18th in yards allowed but ninth in points allowed because the defense bent but didn’t often break. The group gave up explosive plays but was a top-10 defense in the red zone. They delivered stops inside the 20 and even produced a few big takeaways late in games. Can the Packers count on the red-zone performance continuing in 2020? Even a slight slip inside the 20-yard line and the defense could take a substantial step in the wrong direction.

Accountability? Matt LaFleur was highly critical of the Packers’ energy, intensity and urgency on defense against the 49ers. That’s a player issue, but it’s also a coaching issue. Pettine wasn’t just out-coached. How does a coach not have his guys ready to play in a conference title game? The Packers weren’t prepared in any way and got beat up physically and mentally. The NFL is a results business, and when the optics are as bad as they were Sunday in San Francisco, people have to be accountable. Pettine is getting a pass.