The Indianapolis Colts traded up in the second round of the 2020 NFL Draft to select running back Jonathan Taylor out of Wisconsin hoping he can make an immediate impact on the offense.
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Even though they already had Marlon Mack in the backfield, the Colts didn’t want to pass up the opportunity to grab a player like Taylor, who is both a production monster and an athletic freak.
Projecting the backfield for the Colts is extremely difficult. We know it will be a split at the top with Taylor and Mack, but it isn’t at all clear what that will look like. Will the veteran get the benefit of the doubt? Will Taylor immediately prove his superiority? There are a ton of questions like this.
>>>T.Y. Hilton’s 2020 projections<<<
>>>Philip Rivers’ 2020 projections<<<
Regardless, here’s an early projection for Taylor’s rookie season with the Colts:
| Attempts | Rushing Yards | TDs | YPC | Targets | Rec. | Rec. Yds | Rec. TDs |
| 187 | 823 | 7 | 4.4 | 22 | 16 | 115 | 2 |
It was difficult breaking up the carries in the backfield, but I have the Colts projected for 457 total carries in 2020. With a near-even split on early downs, the projection came down to Taylor getting 41% of the rushes while Mack got 38% of the backfield rushes. The difference came out to be just 13 carries.
Attempts: As stated above, it was hard to split up the carries. We don’t really know what that split will look like, but I believe Taylor will eventually take over the 1A role in the room. It might be Mack’s lead at the beginning of the season, but Taylor could easily take over by the final eight games. Even so, it should be an even split in the backfield between Taylor and Mack—assuming they both play 16 games.
Rushing Yards: Working behind an elite run-blocking offensive line, Taylor will have no problem being efficient. Some might believe his yards per carry mark is a little low, but averaging 4.4. yards per carry as a rookie isn’t bad at all. With his explosive talent and contact balance, Taylor could approach the 950–1,000-yard mark if he gets a bigger workload than I’m projecting.
Touchdowns: It will be interesting to see how the Colts use their goal line touches. Do they use the bigger back in Taylor? Or do they use Mack on the more physically demanding carries seeing as he’s likely a free agent after 2020? Regardless, Taylor should be in for a solid amount of goal-line work and his ability to break off a big play means he could have a few long touchdown runs.
Targets: We know Philip Rivers likes to target the running back position, but that isn’t projected to be Taylor’s role. That will go to Nyheim Hines. Taylor will still get some passing work, and he’s better in that phase than he’s given credit for. But it’s tough to project a big target share during his rookie season.
Conclusion
Taylor should be coveted in rookie dynasty drafts and he could wind up turning into a solid piece in redraft. But with the split likely being very close with him and Mack for the 2020 season, there is little upside to be had unless something shifts in the approach. Even so, Taylor projects as a solid RB3 (top-36) and if Mack gets hurt or the Colts simply switch to a one-back mentality, Taylor can climb the ranks. But his limited passing work and split share in the backfield limits his upside for 2020 as a fantasy asset.
Point projections
PPR: 163.8
1/2 PPR: 155.8
Non-PPR: 147.8
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