On Monday, the North Carolina Tar Heels found out they were heading to the Terre Haute regional as they are matched up with Indiana State, Wright State, and Iowa.
The Diamond Heels will open up regional play on Friday, taking on Iowa in the double-elimination format. But what are North Carolina’s chances at not only getting out of the regional but the super regional?
Twitter user Statsowar ran his College World Series simulations 1,000 times to give the probability of each team making the event. As Statsowar noted, these are reasonable expectations of outcomes based on some historical numbers. And for North Carolina, they sit at 17.4% which is 19th out of 64 teams in the field.
Texas A&M 18.3%
Oklahoma St. 17.8%
North Carolina 17.4%
Iowa 17.3%
Texas 15.5%
Oregon St. 15.4%
East Carolina 15.1%
Oregon 14.7%
BC 14.5%
TCU 13.7%
Southern Miss 13.5%
Arizona 12.5%
West Virginia 12.5%
Washington 12.3%
Campbell 11.5%
DBU 11.5%
NC State 11%
Indiana St. 10.8%— parker, made it up because I hate your team (@statsowar) May 29, 2023
If North Carolina can get out of the regional, they will have the task of taking down the winner of the Fayetteville Regional. That regional features Arkansas (22.2%) , Arizona (12.5%), TCU (13.7%), and Santa Clara.
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