“Captain Checkdown” is a term not often associated with Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson, but analytics show that it may be accurate.
According to new data from Pro Football Focus, the two-time Pro Bowl quarterback has the seventh-highest checkdown rate in the NFL over the past two seasons at 8.9%.
Elsewhere, the above group consists primarily of below-average quarterbacks, but there are interesting exceptions. Deshaun Watson has the seventh-highest checkdown rate of any quarterback in the league over the past two seasons, perhaps contrary to his overall perception. Over the same time span, he also has the 12th-highest big-time throw rate (PFF’s highest-graded throws) and one of the best PFF grades in the league in key situations — such as the fourth quarter, close games and third downs. Watson is a big-time playmaker for the Houston Texans, but he also has a tendency to throw checkdowns at a higher rate than most quarterbacks.
As author Sam Monson noted, “not all checkdowns are created equal,” indicating that a checkdown on first or second down is not the same as a checkdown on third down. How would Watson’s checkdown percentage look when the urgency to convert was elevated?
It actually pushed Watson from No. 7 to No. 3 over the two-year period and elevated him to a 10.5% rate.
What isn’t discussed in the study is what constitutes a checkdown. Is it simply dumping off to a running back? What if the running back goes for 34 yards as Taiwan Jones did in overtime of the AFC wild-card versus the Buffalo Bills to setup the game-winning field goal? With David Johnson and Duke Johnson expected to be featured more in the Texans’ offense, are Watson’s passes to them going to be considered checkdowns?
Watson provides the Texans opportunities to win ballgames, and checking down is a necessary part of keeping the game close and not costing the team with a big mistake.