[jwplayer YaOcRwS8-XNcErKyb]
Two mirror images in so many ways will take the field and face off against each other on Saturday.
Big things were expected this year of both Michigan football and Penn State, but it was the Nittany Lions that were expected to be a top 10 team and a national title contender. However, PSU has yet to win a game this year.
Like Michigan, Penn State is also reeling from opt outs and injuries. Star LB Micah Parsons opted out and never opted back in. RB Journey Brown was forced to medically retire before the season and RB Noah Cain and TE Pat Freiermuth were both lost to injury this season.
Like Michigan, Penn State is also not quite set at the quarterback position. But unlike the Wolverines, after Will Levis managed to create an offensive spark in a loss to Nebraska, PSU started Levis the following week against Iowa. When that didn’t go so well, it resorted to bringing a struggling Sean Clifford back in, who continued to be erratic with 2 TD and 2 INT — but at least put the Nittany Lions on the board.
Unlike Michigan, Penn State’s defense has been stout both against the pass and against the run, yardage-wise. It boasts a formidable duo up front in Shaka Toney and Jayson Oweh. The unit has managed to get 12 sacks on the year thus far, good for third in the conference. However, like Michigan, it hasn’t mattered when it comes to the score. Both teams are tied for No. 12 in scoring defense, allowing 36 points per game.
Like Michigan, Penn State is struggling to kick field goals, though the Wolverines have been worse. PSU has managed to make 5-of-10, whereas Michigan is but 2-of-8.
The Nittany Lions do have some players to look out for, though: WR Jahan Dotson has 31 receptions for 527 yards and 6 TD, going an average of 17 yards-per-attempt. Linebackers Ellis Brooks and Jesse Luketa are problem areas on defense, as is CB Lamont Wade.
Despite having a solid number in pass defense, from a yardage allowed perspective, PFF has Penn State as the second-worst Big Ten team in terms of coverage — by comparison, Michigan is tenth, three spots head of PSU. By the same metrics, it has the fourth-best pass rush (Michigan is second), is third in tackling efficiency (Michigan is first), is sixth against the run (Michigan is third), and is eighth in total defense (Michigan is fifth). Offensively, PFF has Penn State as the worst passing offense in the Big Ten (Michigan is third), seventh in pass blocking (Michigan is sixth), twelfth in rushing (Michigan is seventh), and fifth in run blocking (Michigan is sixth). Overall, from an offensive standpoint, Michigan is rated fifth in the conference, while Penn State is tenth. Overall, PFF has Michigan as the fifth-best team in the conference to PSU’s eighth.
So, while this game seems unpredictable, the advanced metrics by PFF suggest that Michigan will win. But, ESPN’s FPI still indicate that Penn State is the favorite, with a 53.2% chancre to win the game. However, James Franklin has never won in Ann Arbor, and two of the three times he’s taken the Nittany Lions to The Big House, it’s been a blowout win in favor of the Wolverines.
[lawrence-related id=30734,30724,30641]
Predictions
For WolverinesWire, Brandon Knapp, Ted Rydquist, Trent Knoop and Isaiah Hole are breaking down what Michigan needs to do to win, what would amount to a certain loss in Big Ten Week 5, one bold prediction — or hill we’re dying on — and the final score.