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So here we are, set to see a prime time matchup between Michigan and Rutgers that will look nothing like the last time these two teams squared off in such a scenario in Piscataway.
Both teams are 1-3, and Rutgers beat a team that Michigan couldn’t in MSU. The Scarlet Knights appear to be improved, but that just means competitive. The Wolverines haven’t been that, really, since the season opener.
The flagship university in the state of New Jersey has gotten a boost from both new-again head coach Greg Schiano as well as new starting QB, Nebraska transfer, Noah Vedral. Vedral is completing 63% of his passes, but is only managing 5.5 yards-per-attempt. He’s a turnover machine, with 5 touchdowns to 7 interceptions on the year thus far. In fact, despite getting 7 gifted turnovers in Week 1, Rutgers is still underwater in turnover margin, which should tell you how prone they are on that side of the ball. The offensive line has allowed him to be sacked 8 times thus far this year.
In terms of pass catching, the biggest weapon is Bo Melton, the speedy NJ native who actually donned a Michigan offer as a recruit. He has 20 receptions for 334 yards and 4 TD, and he’s the only big play threat lined up wide.
Isaih Pacheco and Kay’Ron Adams constitute the bulk of the relatively meager rushing attack. They’re in the same situation as Michigan’s backs in that they have a decent yards-per-carry, but don’t get the ball as much as they probably should. Pacheco is averaging 5.2 yards-per-attempt, whereas Adams is managing 6.25. Yet, Rutgers is just slightly ahead of Michigan in yards-per-game.
Defensively, whereas Rutgers has traditionally boasted a stout pass defense, such hasn’t been the case this year. It’s given up more than 300 yards twice — to Ohio State and MSU — somewhat limited Indiana. but held a depleted Illinois to just 104 yards through the air. The defense has 7 sacks on the year with LB Mohamed Toure accounting for three thus far.
The Scarlet Knights are solid, but not spectacular, against the run most games, but it’s been getting steadily worse. They held MSU to just 50 yards on the ground before holding Indiana to 109 yards on 40 carries. But Ohio State and Illinois both gashed them, to the tune of 203 and 338 yards, respectively. Up front, former Michigan defensive tackle Michael Dwumfour and fellow linemen Julius Turner and CJ Onyechi are forces. PFF has Rutgers as the 10th-best rush defense, but fourth-best pass rush.
The aforementioned Melton is also a factor in punt returns and has a TD already on the year. RU leads the conference with an average of 17.25 yards-per-return. Kick return has also been kind with Aron Cruickshank averaging 20.8 yards, but Melton has also been back there and managed a 65-yarder, as well. Rutgers is solid punting and kicking the ball, and has been good at limiting the opposition on the other end, ranking No. 4 in the conference in opponent returns.
So, on paper, Rutgers is about even — maybe even better than Michigan in some regards. It ran a lot of trick plays against Ohio State in the second half to great success. But Michigan is still more talented. That hasn’t meant anything the past three games, but still — the Wolverines should win this game. The question is: can or will it, given all of the recent issues?
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Predictions
For WolverinesWire, Brandon Knapp, Ted Rydquist, Trent Knoop and Isaiah Hole are breaking down what Michigan needs to do to win, what would amount to a certain loss in Big Ten Week 5, one bold prediction — or hill we’re dying on — and the final score.