[jwplayer 1gDGILN8-XNcErKyb]
Things did not go as planned for Michigan football in Big Ten Week 2. Now, the Wolverines have a one in the loss column as they head to Bloomington to face undefeated No. 13 Indiana.
For the first time in eons, the Hoosiers enter the game as the top-ranked team, but Michigan is still favored to win, according to Las Vegas. There’s a lot of hedging that we’ll see more of what we saw in Week 1 out of the maize and blue, in addition to the fact that U-M has won 24 straight, having not lost to IU since 1987.
Yeah, it’s been that long. But the Hoosiers upset Penn State in OT in Week 1, so anything can happen.
Michigan will see a different quarterback this time around as Michael Penix Jr. reclaims his rightful throne. Having been injured a year ago, the Wolverines got a repeat showing by Peyton Ramsey, who is now leading the charge at Northwestern. Last year, Penix had seven game appearances and was even better than his successor in passer efficiency — completing 110 of 160 passes (68.8%) for 1,394 yards, 10 touchdowns and 4 INT. But his penchant for rushing added to his skills, as he had 22 carries for 119 yards and 2 TD.
This year, while Indiana has had a better start, Penix’s success isn’t quite as masterful. He’s rushed 10 times for 2 yards and is completing 58% of his passes thus far. His targets are similar, however, in WRs Whop Philyor and Ty Fryfogle as well as TE Peyton Hendershot. The trio has combined for 24 catches for 302 yards through two games. But where Michigan has had 12 receivers thus far, Indiana has only matched up with seven.
A year after combining for 1,120 yards and 13 touchdowns on the ground, however, Stevie Scott and Sampson James aren’t rekindling their success in the rushing attack, so much. Scott has 41 carries for 138 yards (3.37 yards-per-attempt) while James has 8 carries for 37 yards. Indiana is last in the conference with only 150 rushing yards total on the season — and has a lower amount of yards on the ground total than Nebraska and Wisconsin — two teams that have only played one game a piece, thus far. Barring a sudden change, Michigan should be able to stymie the Hoosiers ground game.
Defensively, however, IU’s secondary has proven formidable. It has 5 interceptions already, and is third in the conference in yards allowed through the air, per game (Wisconsin, having only played one game, is No. 1). Penn State managed 238 yards passing and Rutgers got an anemic 126 yards through the air. Looking at the Nittany Lions particularly, Sean Clifford & Co. only managed 6.8 yards-per-attempt — which happens to be where Joe Milton and Cade McNamara sit after two games. If Michigan is to have success in this game, it’ll need numbers closer to Week 1 vs. Minnesota — 9 yards-per-attempt, and will have to avoid turning the ball over for the first time.
Where Indiana is particularly susceptible, however, is in the run game, where it has the conference’s No. 10 rush defense, allowing 185.5 yards-per-game. While Rutgers managed just 121 yards, Penn State got 250 on the ground. Given that the Wolverines is closer to the latter than the former, it should be an opportunity to get that room up and going after a substandard week against MSU.
Indiana has been solid in terms of getting into the backfield, with 14 tackles for loss and five sacks thus far. But it’s also allowed 4 sacks and 13 tackles for loss on the other end, so it could be yet another opportunity for Michigan on the defensive end to get its defensive ends going. The Hoosiers get most of their production in sacks from defensive back Tiawan Mullen, who also has 3.5 TFL and is third on the team in tackles. Fellow defensive backs Jaylin Williams and Jamar Johnson account for 3-of-5 of the team’s interceptions, while Johnson also has 2.5 tackles for loss on the year.
For Michigan, this game will be about getting back to what it showed in Week 1 and reestablishing itself as a powerful program in the Big Ten East. Win, and much — though not all — of its aspirations are on the table. Lose, and the season is beyond a disappointment.
Which Michigan team will show up? We’ll know more on Saturday at noon EST.
[lawrence-related id=29729,29725,29706,29690]
Predictions
For WolverinesWire, Brandon Knapp, Ted Rydquist, Trent Knoop and Isaiah Hole are breaking down what Michigan needs to do to win, what would amount to a certain loss in Big Ten Week 3, one bold prediction — or hill we’re dying on — and the final score.